[Homer_J_Simpson]

The problem with that assumption is it doesn’t recognize the southern fear of a northern Senate majority, which they saw as fatal to their cause, in the long run. They saw admission of Kansas as a free state as the beginning of the end of their way of life. You’re right that many Republicans probably miscalculated on that score.

[colorado tanker]

Yes, I think that long game was on the mind of the more sophisticated fire-eaters. There's an awful lot of land west of Missouri and Texas that one day would be free states. Once free-soilers would have 2/3 of the Senate, they could amend the Constitution to abolish slavery.

But it was a pipe-dream to think Kansas or points west were suitable for plantation agriculture and slave labor. By 1861, slavery was illegal in almost all European colonies and throughout Latin America except for Brazil. They were on the wrong side of history and geography.