“The bottom line is that McMullin won’t pull anybody who isn’t already a nevertrumper.”
I don’t know. I’ve talked to people who are very much on the fence still about Trump. They won’t vote for Hillary, but they’re not sure they want to vote for Trump or not vote at all. McMullin may be an attractive out for these types, even though many of them could end up voting for Trump under the right circumstances. McMullin won’t get many votes at all, but if certain states are very close, he may actually have an influence. I really doubt it, but it isn’t impossible.
(And by the way, I think they’re just making excuses for McMullin. The point isn’t for him to win, but to seem like a credible enough candidate to steal votes from Trump so that Hillary can become president. The author knows what taking Utah from Trump really means.)
If they’re not telling the pollsters they are for Trump, then are either saying Clinton, other, or neither. Therefore, they are not counted in Trump totals. I believe Trump is leading in Utah, but I’m not sure.
The official #nevertrumpers might want Clinton to win, but I’m guessing that most pro-America Mormons and conservatives in Utah realize that is an absolutely terrible sentence against America.
McMullin is part CIA, part Goldman Sachs banker, part Mormon, part Pro-Life, Part Bald White Guy, Part Utah.