Posted on 08/01/2016 8:27:01 PM PDT by LS
Massive undersampling of Republicans.
No wonder Hillary is up by double digits!
No one believes that including CNN but it still helps them sell an agenda.
Whether the poll is true or not doesn’t matter.
This is good reading I need to sit down with it later. Love what I read so far.
Lots of good materials
Well done LS
Insert “the only poll that matters” trope here.
But you know, it’s true.
DAMN THE TORPEDOES!
it will come down to the debates..if Trump kicks Hillary’s ass he becomes president..if it’s vise versa she wins..that simple..tonight on Hannity Trump sounded very presidential..intelligent..good message..he continues talking like that he can win
When a poll is cited as having a ±3% MOE, it means nothing more than that you can say with 95% confidence that the mean answer for the sample population falls within ±%3 of the entire population of that cohort -- IF the sampling mehtodology is truly random. That is all it means.
It has no mathematically rigorous predictive ability, despite its being labelled "scientific" because it is nothing more than an indication of how that cohort would vote if they were voting today. It is of little practical predictive ability because the cohorts: adults ≠ registered voters ≠ likely voters ≠ people who will vote on election day ≠ people who will vote on election day and honestly answer the question of how they voted.
This is why Gallup has dropped out of the presidential polling business: in order to be useful, your model must be able to turn your target population into the actual voting population, and there is no mathematically, statistically, or even psychologically sound methodology for doing that. "Likely" generally "seems" better, but even that varies with the quality of a pollster's special sauce. The degree to which "likely" is properly modelled to extrapolate to voters-on-the-first-Tuesday-of-November is entirely a crap shoot which no polling organization has mastered for more than two elections in a row.
Nice clear assessment. It would be interesting to track non-respondents for all these polls.
One other thought, this is an election where both candidates have significant negatives. Which polls or polling methods work best under such conditions.
Do the math. Just the women and minority vote puts Hillary close to 45%. Hopefully that’s her ceiling.
Remember also that increasing the size of the sample only decreases the MOE as the square root of the number sampled. Sampling 5000 adults only reduces the MOE from ±3 to ±1.34, but increases the cost by a factor of 5.
And, remember the biggest error is not in the MOE, which is well known, but in determining how to decide which of your respondents are going to actually vote.
“I think Trump will win if he backs off this Kahn guy...”
Kahn will be a distant, nearly forgotten memory, long before November 8th.
He won’t even be be a small factor in the vote, by that time.
Yeah probably some computer games they play to make it seem legit.
I thought the same thing. Sean asked him a question (I can’t remember what it was) and he changed the subject and got on message. He needs to do that more often.
Agree with your post, and would add that there’s WAY too much that can happen between now and November to put any faith in polls at all. Wikileaked emails, terrorist attacks, social media kerfuffles, etc. At best, they are a sign of trends.
he was very presidential..but he needs to do that more often..not just when he talks to a neutral party..he is very capable of being presidential..and the Trump I saw tonight can beat Clinton in a debate
I remember when McCain was up 7 points..looking like he would win the election..the second the stock market tanked that was it..game over..no one knows what will happen between now and November anything can happen and change everything
Official Pile On/Eating Macaca Thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2125687/posts
Nov 5, 2008
"Two weeks ago, if I had told you that deep red precincts would turn out at record levels, you would have thought that John McCain would not only win, but that he might win by a comfortable margin.
Well, didn't happen.
The "turnout model" of politics is officially dead---the one that says if you get "your people" to the polls, you win. The trouble is, they have to really be "your people."
I went downtown to count votes at 7:00. Our whole team thought not only had we won Dayton, but OH, and probably---with turnout rates like that---indicated McCain would do very well. I can't tell you how excited they were based on the turnout. In Miamisburg, two very Republican precincts had voted out 75% by 5:00 in the evening.
We got a report from a Trotwood Republican precinct that had voted at an 80% clip. Darke County called in saying they were at near-record 80%.
Finally---and I know I don't have credibility here (Freeper Captain Kirk was dead on)---the national numbers suggest that there was a "reverse Bradley," a guilt vote. This could account for some of the R defections.
I'm eating macaca. So pile on.
But you can trust me on this: we all have a lot more to worry about now than who was the best political prognosticator. God save our once-great nation."
I also think that there is a real possibility that there are a lot of Trump supporters that are unwilling to tell a pollster hiw they really feel. There has been so much negative press and so much shaming test people don’t want to answer.
And people have the impression that the NSA is monitoring all phone calls.....resulting in something like this....
Obamacare Navigator: ..."your voting record does nor conform to standards"
..."and your answers to polling questions prior to the last election are way out of line..."
I hope to God that Trump is aggressively courting the black vote. Trump has to be able to convince them that all those years of voting Democrat has brought them nothing but misery.
If there ever was a time for a GOP candidate to get a larger than normal share of the black vote, this would be the time. If Trump can get 15% to 20% of the black vote, this election is over as Trump would win big.
Go get those votes Trump!
Kahn is rapidly becoming a liability to Killary as the hits on him keep on coming. He is getting torn apart.
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