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To: cardinal4

Think about it:

How could Trump be within 3 points of Clinton or leading in the swing states of PA, Ohio, Iowa, VA, NC and be 14 points back nationwide?

In addition all the other national polls show Clinton ahead by 3-5 points. RI is definitely an outlier.


14 posted on 06/25/2016 3:03:55 AM PDT by techno
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To: techno

When I look at a poll that seems contrary to prevailing events and my impressions, I look at the ‘group’....how it was set up (% Reps, Dems, and Inds). I’ve seen a couple polls now where they took near equal samples from all three, maybe claiming that some Democrats were actually independents because of one reason or another), thus significantly oversampling Democrats.

The do NOT measure conviction and the support a voter has or intends; the questions could be generically skewed towards a liberal response seeming more appropriate and less harsh. Could be a number of things and you have to really go through the entire architecture of that poll, its questions, its demographics, its party divisions, and the whole gamut.


20 posted on 06/25/2016 3:19:23 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: techno

They took 75% of the poll in SF probably


26 posted on 06/25/2016 3:47:16 AM PDT by Mouton (The insurrection laws maintain the status quo now.)
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To: techno
...How could Trump be within 3 points of Clinton or leading in the swing states of PA, Ohio, Iowa, VA, NC and be 14 points back nationwide? ...

I have seen the level of delusion and white guilt in liberal areas (CA, NYC, Boston). I am not sure "white guilt" is the right term, but they feel guilty over their own success, so they do everything they can to tax others and give morale-sapping welfare to the "poor". Or at least the "poor of color". Blue collar workers need not apply, they will be taxed into poverty. Hillary does very, very well in these areas.

As long as Hillary gets overwhelming majorities in states with 25% to 40% of the EVs, and Trump has a slender lead in the remainder, he will win. Possibly with less than half of the popular vote, but he can lose the popular vote and still win.

89 posted on 06/25/2016 6:59:50 AM PDT by CurlyDave
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