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Rate Possibily Cruz Could Win Brokered GOP Convention (Scale 1 to 10)
Self | April 1, 2016 | PJ-Comix

Posted on 04/01/2016 10:00:49 AM PDT by PJ-Comix

Okay, we know that Ted Cruz needs to win 84% of the remaining delegates to reach the magic 1237 to win the nomination. Since that won't be happening, his ONLY hope is to win after the first ballot at an open (brokered) convention. For him to win you need to believe that the GOPe would be cool with a Cruz nomination.

Sooooo... On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being a complete impossibility of a Cruz nomination and 10 being an absolute certainty that Cruz will be nominated, numerically rate Cruz's chances of a nomination after the first ballot at the GOP convention this summer.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: brokeredconvention; candywrapper; cheater2rise; convention; cruz; deludedliar; donaldtrump; election; gope; lollipop; tedcruz; trump
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To: PJ-Comix
I'll say 11 just to make the cruzers feel good.

He's really just under a one.

61 posted on 04/01/2016 10:41:10 AM PDT by showme_the_Glory ((ILLEGAL: prohibited by law. ALIEN: Owing political allegiance to another country or government))
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To: PJ-Comix

1. Not wanted even in a brokered convention.


62 posted on 04/01/2016 10:42:06 AM PDT by etabeta
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To: PJ-Comix

I’d say a 7. Cruz has been working the delegate game and the delegates are NOT GOPe by default. Delegates are people like us who are involved in local politics. Many of them hate the GOPe too.

So many of the delegates are probably scared of a Trump nomination so in comparison they like Cruz. In a way Trump has actually made Cruz favorable to many who didn’t like him before. Kind of like how Hillary makes Joe Biden look good.


63 posted on 04/01/2016 10:42:30 AM PDT by for-q-clinton (If at first you don't succeed keep on sucking until you do succeed)
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To: PJ-Comix
How about we check out what the delegates from our states are doing?

Many of the 49 delegates in Tennessee who are pledged to either Donald Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 97% will reportedly meet this month to seal a grassroots alliance in which they pledge their votes during any contested convention only to Trump or Cruz. “My concern is that whether you are a Cruz delegate or a Trump delegate the establishment wants to nominate somebody like John Kasich who has no mathematical chance or moral authority to become the nominee because he has received so few votes in the primaries,” former State Rep. Joe Carr, an at-large Cruz delegate, tells Breitbart News. He adds:

64 posted on 04/01/2016 10:42:34 AM PDT by don-o (He will not share His glory. And He will NOT be mocked! Blessed be the Name of the Lord forever!)
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To: fooman
The Simple Reason the GOP Won’t Take Trump’s SC Delegates Away
65 posted on 04/01/2016 10:43:20 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
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To: Mr. K

There will not be a brokered convention, but there will likely by a contested one.


66 posted on 04/01/2016 10:44:16 AM PDT by CityCenter (Suz for Cruz)
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To: vmivol00

-10! Trump will cut a deal with the Rube for his delegates support and the Rube will be the VP and the bone tossed to the GOPE traitors for their support in the general. I support Cruz but see no way he can win the nomination and he will not be chosen in a brokered convention, the GOPE pond scum will not allow it.


67 posted on 04/01/2016 10:44:19 AM PDT by sarge83
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To: PJ-Comix

I’m with you—1.


68 posted on 04/01/2016 10:44:33 AM PDT by Defiant (After 8 years of Chump Change, it's time for Trump Change!!)
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To: JRios1968

Zero. Didn’t you get the memo?


69 posted on 04/01/2016 10:45:18 AM PDT by Williams (Dear God, please save us from the Democrats. And the Republicans.)
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To: for-q-clinton

Thank you, finally someone gets it that the delegates are not the same as GOPe.


70 posted on 04/01/2016 10:45:35 AM PDT by CityCenter (Suz for Cruz)
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To: PJ-Comix

1, and that’s being generous.

Whenever you have 2 factions vying for leadership and neither faction has enough power to claim it outright, the end game is nearly always a compromised leader who was not even in the running.

The fact so many Cruz backers think if it gets to a contested convention their guy wins shows just how completely naive or willfully ignorant they are to human nature and political history.


71 posted on 04/01/2016 10:47:31 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: kabar
Not to worry..Cruz will be the winner in the end...


72 posted on 04/01/2016 10:47:43 AM PDT by caww
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To: TheCornerOffice
I give him at least an 8 out of 10

Seriously deluded. Cruz managed to swipe a few delegates here and there. Big deal. The RNC controls many of the Trump delegates, some of the Cruz delegates, and all of the Kasich and Rubio delegates. They have been working overtime on selection of delegates in states where the party chooses, or where they can sneak them in. They will have way more than Cruz could ever muster on a second ballot. Put down the Kool-Aid.

73 posted on 04/01/2016 10:49:05 AM PDT by Defiant (After 8 years of Chump Change, it's time for Trump Change!!)
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To: PJ-Comix

I would say minus 10

They are getting ready for Paul Ryan


74 posted on 04/01/2016 10:50:13 AM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
You’re really not so dim that you aren’t aware of that, right?

Yes, they all really are that dim. Cruz included.

75 posted on 04/01/2016 10:51:00 AM PDT by Defiant (After 8 years of Chump Change, it's time for Trump Change!!)
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To: fooman

You are right that in the event Cruz somehow became the nominee even though far behind Trump in delegates, Cruz would lose the election in a landslide of epic proportions. I disagree that the same would befall Trump. Cruz voters, in places like Texas and Oklahoma would end up voting for Trump. Trump would grow the map in other states hard hit by globalism. He doesn’t need Cruz, and at this point, I wouldn’t want him.


76 posted on 04/01/2016 10:54:22 AM PDT by Defiant (After 8 years of Chump Change, it's time for Trump Change!!)
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To: lodi90

Florida and Ohio are kind of outliers due to the anti-trump movement backing kasich and Rubio in those states.

Trump came out 1-1 with +33 delegates. Trump failed to get a majority in Florida and lost badly in Ohio.

Trump can’t get over 50%. That’s why he will lose. He might break that streak in his home state of he doesn’t step on his Johnson again between now and then.


77 posted on 04/01/2016 10:55:02 AM PDT by Outlaw76 (Conservative, Showman, Rino. Make your choice wisely.)
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To: don-o

That is why I think Cruz can win only on the third ballot.

100 delegates between SC and TN. The TN delegates would see Ted gaining votes on the second ballot and only support Ted on the third ballot.


78 posted on 04/01/2016 10:55:14 AM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: PJ-Comix

8


79 posted on 04/01/2016 10:56:14 AM PDT by SuzyQue
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To: PJ-Comix

If Trump gets a majority on the first ballot, it’s all over.

After the first ballot, it comes down to individual state rules and to who the individual delegates are. That is a very tricky question, one I assume Cruz and the establishment are studying more than you could possibly imagine. Delegates are bound for varying numbers of ballots, so change may be very slow, which will look to some like a deadlock.

Some delegates will be loyal to Cruz/Trump out of inherent loyalty. Others are bound to those two but hate their candidate - but they get a trip to the convention and a chance to be a part of history, so they don’t care how they have to vote. A whole lost are just party hacks, there to represent their state party and move up in the national party. Others are just along for the ride, and they can be influenced by anyone who explains why ____ (fill in the blank) is the right thing for the party and for America.

I don’t know what the distribution of those groups is, but that distribution and who gets to the open-minded delegates (yes, there really are a lot of delegates who do not have a fixed opinion on the Trump/Cruz/Jeb/Kasich/Romney question) is what will decide a contested convention.


80 posted on 04/01/2016 10:57:38 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Somebody who agrees with me 80% of the time is a friend and ally, not a 20% traitor. - Ronald Reagan)
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