Ted Cruz supporters at this point are voting for the GOP Establishment to Choose the nominee.

self / opinion ^ | 4/1/2016 | Jack Black

[Jack Black]

There are only two choices remaining for how the GOP Nomination process goes.

• One, probably the less likely option, is that Trump secures enough delegates in the rest of the contests to put him over the top and he is nominated on the first ballot in Cleveland.

• The second is that the GOP Establishment, led by Mitt Romney, Carl Rove and others succeed in making it an open convention and choosing the nominee there.

There is no possibility of either Cruz or Kasich winning the nomination by delegate votes on the first ballot, so both of them are working to prevent Trump from reaching that threshold, and then hoping they are the choice of the open convention that results.

It's hard to handicap who walks out of Cleveland with the crown if we go in with Trump short of 1237 delegates.

What we do know is that the party is being extra-crafty to put party loyalists into as many of those delegate slots as possible. Some of those faux-Trump delegates may well support Cruz, but it's more likely that many are Romney era or even older GOP establishment types.

Do you know your county GOP chair? Those are the type of people who will be deciding the nominee in an open convention.

I think Cruz's chances of winning the nomination on a second or subsequent ballot are pretty poor. He's not loved by the GOP establishment, in fact some say he's liked less than Trump. Having pulled off a great political coup, with the open convention, you can be sure that the powers that be will not settle for Cruz.

This will be the golden opportunity to seat someone they really like.

My guess is Paul Ryan is that guy.

My serious question to Cruz supporters (and Kasich too if there are any here) is: do you prefer having the GOP Establishment pick the nominee to Trump?

And, secondly, if you will stipulate for the sake of discussion that Cruz is unlikely to be the guy, who do you want the GOP Establishment to choose?

[AllAmericanGirl44]

Too dim to see the light - but everyone here knows that about you durbie, you are either too much a naif to see the reality or you’re a paid troll. Either way, enjoy the slid.

It will never be Cruz - and this meme about women not liking Trump? Bwahahah - I can’t find ONE woman who likes Teddy.

It’s ugly out here, if you ever got off your computer (that is, take a break and loose a couple bucks) you might see things a bit more realistic.

C’mon troll, blather away at me, I know you have a few talking points to push. I’m out for the day so I’m expecting a hearty laugh when I return and read your slop.

[longfellowsmuse]

While unlikely, I don’t believe it is as yet mathematically impossible for Cruz to get a majority of delegates. He has been very good at going after delegates that have been unassigned as of yet. Also, Rubio’s delegates are still up for grabs. Personally. I think Trump will go into the election with the greatest number of delegates, but the fat lady is just only getting into her vocal warm ups:)

[1Old Pro]

Ted's a smart guy. He went to Yale, I'm sure he's done the math. Ted is playing to deny Trump and force the open convention.

Ironic isn't, the "outsider" is actively working to help the GOPe.

[Eric Pode of Croydon]

I don't much care about the convention strategy, Jack.

I've always voted for the candidate who is the strongest advocate of limiting government. Whether that candidate has a chance of winning or not.

And that means I've voted third party in the general election several times.

If my primary ballot comes down to Trump versus Cruz, it's simply no contest that the limit government test gives Cruz my vote, and let the convention chips fall where they may.

[Durbin]

Oh i see the light now.

TRUMPTRUMPTRUMPTRUMPTRUMP!!!!!

[LearnsFromMistakes]

If Trump drops out and Cruz gets the rest of the delegates, then the GOPe doesn't get to pick anything.
Will be interesting to see what, if any, responses this gathers...probably not 'why didn't I think of that? Donald, drop out and hose the GOPe big time!'...

[angry elephant]

who do we vote for if neither C or T win the nomination?”

We write in Trump because no one that the GOPe chooses will win against Hillary. Also, were they to win they would just be Hillary lite.

Apparently, the GOPe is willing to totally destroy the party so as to put in Jeb, Ryan or some “fresh face” chosen by Rove.

[CityCenter]

Nope, I am voting from Cruz. I have liked him from the beginning, but it took me a while to settle on him as my choice. I needed to see how it would play out with all the other candidates. Cruz is getting my vote in the Washington State primary and he will get my vote if he wins the nomination. Trump will never get my vote.

[Jack Black]

Preventing Trump from winning the requisite delegates is mission number one because Donald would lose in an epic landslide to Hillary - and probably take the Senate and perhaps even the House down with him.

Do you think Cruz's loss would be less epic, or do you actually think he would win? He can't even win GOP primaries for the most part. How is he going to win the more moderate independents that are needed to beat Hillary. Do you think he appeals to people in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania? We haven't seen much sign of that.

I think he loses bigger than Trump would, tough obviously it's an untestable hypothosis.

[GGpaX4DumpedTea]

Ted’s health insurance is via his wife’s job at Goldman Sachs. She’s the money maker in the family.

Senator's don't have health insurance?

[Jack Black]

There will be a rule that candidate has to have won 8 or more states.

Ted has 9 now, so that would be a smart move for him. It will be an early test. If "Rule 40" is kept the same as 2012 (the 8 State Rule) then the GOPe isn't as powerful as some of us think. If the rule is repealed and not replaced then all the Cruz and Trump delegates are not enough to stop the GOPe from working the convention to get their desired outcome, Paul Ryan.

[VaeVictis]

I call BS. As someone who supported and voted for Tedzu, I am looking at supporting Trump. I actually have gotten rather ticked off at some of Cruz’s antics (like agreeing with the lamestream media that Trump Supporters are violent, when in fact it is the Democrat Rioters/Protesters that are causing problems.) So I would say I’ve not lost Cruz, Cruz lost me.

[EQAndyBuzz]

“My serious question to Cruz supporters (and Kasich too if there are any here) is: do you prefer having the GOP Establishment pick the nominee to Trump?”

Seriously? That’s how you see it?

Here are my two scenarios .

1- Cruz drops out, Trump wins the nomination outright and they still take it away from Trump at the convention and now you have no Conservatve to vote for.

2- Cruz and Trump make nice, Cruz understands he cannot win the nomination so he backs out, pledges his delegates to Trump and we go into the convention as a unified movement that the establishment cannot overcome.

You are asking for number one, assuming 1237 is actually going to change things. I am asking for number 2 which will destroy the establishment.

As long as Cruz and Trump are fighting, the establishment wins any way you cut it. You can blame Cruz, others will blame Trump but the fact is Hillary will be President.

Many think this may be the last opportunity to save our country and instead of uniting us, we are becoming more divided to a point where Trump and Cruz supporters won’t vote for the one that wins.

[EQAndyBuzz]

“Cruz gets the nomination how?”

I am a Cruz supporter, but I am also a realist. Cruz will not be the nominee. But neither will Trump as long as Cruz supporters continue to be marginalized and denigrated.

[Digger]

It’s either Trump, or a GOPe approved nominee. Cruz will NEVER get the nomination under any circumstance.

It's either Trump or no longer a GOP. Now get the heck out Ted & unite & save America, if that is still possible.

[TexasFreeper2009]

Another way to look at it:

It’s either Trump

or

John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Mitch McConnell get together and pick someone they prefer (and hint... it wont be Cruz, no matter what they promised him)

[Jack Black]

You wrote: If Cruz wins a majority of the remaining delegates then he will take the delegate lead from Trump going into the convention.

Sorry, but your math is way off!

Cruz has 463 delegates today.
There are 905 delegates still to be decided
A majority of that (50%+1) is 453, 463 (Current Cruz Total) + 453 (majority of remaining) = 916 Cruz total at the convention.

Trump has 752 delegates today. If he won the largest minority (50%-1) he's add 452. 752+452 = 1204 (only 33 short of winning the nomination).

Trump needs to do just a little bit better than 50% of the delegates TO WIN THE NOMINATION outright.

Ted winning a simple majority of delegates from here on out is a terrible result for him, and make a Trump nomination likely.

Let's see what would Ted have to win to lead Trump in delegates at the convention and see if it's at all plausible? We know, already SEE MY POST #100 that he has no chance of winning outright. Maybe this is a better goal in his spoiler role.

So Ted is 289 delegates behind Trump today. So of the 905 outstanding he needs to win 289 to catch up and 50% +1 of the remaining. (This assume Kasich gets not delegates moving forward, so it might be a little more complicated in actuality).

905 - 289 = 616.
616 / 2 = 308. +1 = 309.
289 + 309 = 598

598 of 905 is 66%. That's a very high bar, but might be possible if he wins a lot of winner take all states.

Unfortunately, there are not many of those left.

Only South Dakota, Nebraska and Montana remain, none very big prizes. South Dakota = 29, Nebraska = 36, Montana = 27. Only 92, he still has to win over 500 in proportional states to get ahead of Trump.

Like New York, where he's far behind. Or New Jersey, where he's far behind. Or Penn, where he's behind.

So, this scenario, while not impossible like him winning the nomination out right is very very unlikely, based on the numbers.

[upsdriver]

You’re right, us Cruz voters should just give up and go home and stay there till the elections are over in November. Sounds like a good idea.

No, you should stay right in there and fight for the GOP political establishment because that's exactly who you are. You're just being true to the machine.

[Durbin]

yeah I know, you convinced me that it’s a choice between the GOPe and Trump, therefore I’ll stay home.

[Jack Black]

Neither is going to get enough delegates to win the nomination before the convention.

Well I've shown that Cruz can't in my POST #100, but you are asserting Trump can't either. Is that True?

The Nate Silver model shows him at 95% of his plan to win the nomination, he needs to do a little better than he has so far against that plan to win. (Cruz is only at 52% of plan, that's insurmountable failure.)

Let's go to the numbers!

Trump has 752 delegates of the 1237 needed to win.
That means he needs 485 delegates.
There are 905 remaining.

He needs to win 53%, just a bit more than 1/2.

That's actually Ted's magic number too, because (as the article and my follow up comments on the thread show clearly) Ted is just playing to spoil and force the open convention. Ted's real achievable goal is to win at least 421 delegates to stop Donald. That's only 46.5% of the delegates remaining.

So, I would say Advantage to Ted, it's obviously easier to win 46% than to win 53%, but I don't think it's at all obvious the Donald can't win 53% of the remaining delegates.

New York is a "hybrid" state, exceeding 50% gets you all 95 delegates. If the Donald does that he would only need 309 of the other 810 available delegates, or 38%.

That sounds pretty achievable to me.