[ChuteTheMall]

I get a total of 1050 thru April, and 1213 thru May, and on June 7 he only needs New Jersey.

Literal, actual back-of-the-envelope scribbling & ciphering;
Some states had no recent polls on RCP, so lots of guesses which assume splitting the proportional votes, Trump still taking the WTA’s until June.

AZ 3/22 Winner Take All 58 for Trump
UT 3/22 Proportional 40 (say half) 20 for Trump
WI 4/5 WTA 42 for Trump
NY 4/19 WTA 95 for Trump
CT 4/26 WTA 28 for Trump
PA “........WTA 71 for Trump
RI “......Proportional 19 (say half) 9 for Trump
DE “......WTA 16 for Trump
MD “.....WTA 38 for Trump
Thru April, this adds 377 to 673 total = 1050

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IN 5/3 WTA 57 for Trump
NE 5/10 WTA 36 for Trump
WV 5/10 Direct 34 for Trump
OR 5/17 Prop. 28 (say half) 14 for Trump
WA 5/24 Prop 44 (say half) 22 for Trump
Thru May, another 163 + 1050 = 1213 of 1237 needed
_____________________________________________
NJ 6/7 WTA 51 for Trump 1264

And that’s enough, with 27 to spare.

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But wait, there’s more:
NM 6/7 prop 24 (say half) 12 for Trump
SD 6/7 WTA 29
MT 6/7 WTA 27
Now it’s 1264 + 80 = 1344
_______________________________
Oh wait, I forgot California on 6/7 another WTA with 172
and I skipped ND 4/1 because unbound for 28
and I skipped Samoa because unbound for 9
........................................................................................
So there is plenty of margin for error left after NJ, and which WTA states could Cruz actually take away from Trump?]/

[MHT]

So, with your scenario, if Trump is at or over the 1237, the RNC should have nothing to work with for anything but a cut-and-dried convention. More media spin to stir trouble. And if Missouri has been assigned and he is close to 700, he only has a little over 500 to go.

[Hawthorn]

>> which WTA states could Cruz actually take away from Trump? <<

CA is WTA, but only district-by-Congressional district. And there are 53 districts, with three delegates per district, plus 13 statewide delegates.

Cruz has a strong ground game in CA and will have experienced GOTV GOP volunteers in just about every district. As of now, Trump apparently has no organization in CA. So if Trump can’t conjure up an organization quickly “out of thin air,” Cruz might be able to take the lion’s share of delegates from CA.

[wardaddy]

I said last week between 1300 and 1400 and closer to 1400 and people said I was nuts

I did the math 10 ways to China

It’s just how it is baring an implosion of trump support

Very few posters bother to run numbers

ESPECIALLY CRUZ BOTS