[Vanity] How Can Trump Get to 1237? Do the math....

3-17-16 | self

[MHT]

Has anybody done their own model to see if Trump can get the numbers needed? If so, what was your combo?

Here's how I think it might happen: Start with 678. AZ 58, NY 95, PA 71, WI split 21, OR 28, WA 44, WV 34, CA 172 = 1201 leaves him 36 short but, Missouri has more for delegation from Congressional districts won, but he definitely needs at least the bulk of one more state. Any suggestions?

[deport]

Several Trump Math threads here. enjoy reading and playing along.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/search?m=all;o=time;q=quick;s=trump%20math

[mouse1]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/

[siamesecats]

NJ might help, we are on June 7th, don’t know how many we have, RCP is down.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

I’ve seen random numbers all over the place. Your number, the 698 number, and 714.

[Red Steel]

Google is wrong as Trump is at 696.

Missouri gave out all their delegates where Trump got 37, Cruz 15 making Trump with 693.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R

Alaska reallocated Rubio’s 5 delegates per Republican rule; 3 for Trump and Cruz got 2. Trump is now at 696.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AK-R

[sarasmom]

Cruz very recently and very openly legally renounced his Canadian Citizenship.
So no, he is no longer a Canadian citizen.

He was legally naturalized by virtue of his mothers USA citizenship, and as such, is a legal USA citizen.
If he hadn't sealed his records, this could have been put to bed last year, but he didn't, and it isn't.

Kasich is not Trump's running mate.
Nor will Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Christie, Carson or Romney be Trump's VP pick.

[RitaOK]

The numbers are all over the place for TRUMP’s total delegate count, throughout the media. Heck, I heard today MO has not even determined the Republican side of that race! Can you believe that? I have no way of knowing what is true from one moment to the next.

Thanks RS for the info.

[FreedBird]

thanks

[neverbluffer]

I was wondering why New Jersey was missing from the noted States. I think there’s a few more missing as well

[Utmost Certainty]

Oh, and btw the math on this has pretty much been done:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/16/upshot/trump-cruz-kasich-republican-delegate-lead.html

[Red Steel]

Most of the media is lazy at updating Trump’s true delegate numbers. We know why ...

As reported in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch news website:

“On Wednesday, the Missouri Republican Party announced Trump had won 37 delegates, and Cruz won 15.”

http://www.stltoday.com/news/national/govt-and-politics/potential-missouri-recount-process-could-take-months/article_a8e255b1-7ae7-5299-8524-ba884529b711.html

[ChuteTheMall]

I get a total of 1050 thru April, and 1213 thru May, and on June 7 he only needs New Jersey.

Literal, actual back-of-the-envelope scribbling & ciphering;
Some states had no recent polls on RCP, so lots of guesses which assume splitting the proportional votes, Trump still taking the WTA’s until June.

AZ 3/22 Winner Take All 58 for Trump
UT 3/22 Proportional 40 (say half) 20 for Trump
WI 4/5 WTA 42 for Trump
NY 4/19 WTA 95 for Trump
CT 4/26 WTA 28 for Trump
PA “........WTA 71 for Trump
RI “......Proportional 19 (say half) 9 for Trump
DE “......WTA 16 for Trump
MD “.....WTA 38 for Trump
Thru April, this adds 377 to 673 total = 1050

---

IN 5/3 WTA 57 for Trump
NE 5/10 WTA 36 for Trump
WV 5/10 Direct 34 for Trump
OR 5/17 Prop. 28 (say half) 14 for Trump
WA 5/24 Prop 44 (say half) 22 for Trump
Thru May, another 163 + 1050 = 1213 of 1237 needed
_____________________________________________
NJ 6/7 WTA 51 for Trump 1264

And that’s enough, with 27 to spare.

---

But wait, there’s more:
NM 6/7 prop 24 (say half) 12 for Trump
SD 6/7 WTA 29
MT 6/7 WTA 27
Now it’s 1264 + 80 = 1344
_______________________________
Oh wait, I forgot California on 6/7 another WTA with 172
and I skipped ND 4/1 because unbound for 28
and I skipped Samoa because unbound for 9
........................................................................................
So there is plenty of margin for error left after NJ, and which WTA states could Cruz actually take away from Trump?]/

[MHT]

So, with your scenario, if Trump is at or over the 1237, the RNC should have nothing to work with for anything but a cut-and-dried convention. More media spin to stir trouble. And if Missouri has been assigned and he is close to 700, he only has a little over 500 to go.

[X-spurt]

Figures don’t lie, but lots of liars figure.

Win them or go to 2nd ballot.

[X-spurt]

“Trump has very good advisors.”

Then why isn’t he listening to them?

[RockyTx]

is Pennsylvania really 71.bound.delegates, winner take all?

if so, Wikipedia has an error

[Hawthorn]

>> which WTA states could Cruz actually take away from Trump? <<

CA is WTA, but only district-by-Congressional district. And there are 53 districts, with three delegates per district, plus 13 statewide delegates.

Cruz has a strong ground game in CA and will have experienced GOTV GOP volunteers in just about every district. As of now, Trump apparently has no organization in CA. So if Trump can’t conjure up an organization quickly “out of thin air,” Cruz might be able to take the lion’s share of delegates from CA.

[RitaOK]

Thank you, dear RS. Honestly, even TRUMP sounded unsure of the MO outcome, something about they are still counting or confirming... something like that.

The Green Papers is a good source for confirmation, and it up on there, so that is good enough for me.

The polling has sure gone silent, huh? And Donald is at major war with MeAgain today. FOX battling back. LOL!
She slanders him 14 hours a week if you include her replays.
He’s not happy.

[PGalt]

Interesting post/thread. Thanks to all posters.

[Red Steel]

You are right about Trump being unsure about the Missouri delegates since the media doesn’t want to report it. The Green Paper guys went digging for it to find the report. I doubt that Trump has seen the St. Louis-Dispatch article. The headline of the article doesn’t say and the news is buried at the end of the article.

Trump on his campaign website from 1 hour ago.

Trump’s tweet - “Why haven’t they released the final Missouri victory for us yet? Could it be because Cruz’s guy runs Missouri?”