Posted on 12/11/2015 9:18:49 AM PST by conservativejoy
Nothing Donald Trump could say or do would drag him down in the polls.
But also, nothing the brash billionaire could say or do can prevent the slide that is coming.
The offensiveness of Trump's comments and quasi-policy proposals are their virtue, politically. His true weakness is that only a sliver of his supporters actually want him to be the Republican nominee.
A close reading of the polls helps show the shallowness of Trump's support. Trump's strongest arena , the national poll , is a nearly meaningless artifact this close to the primaries. In the earliest parts of the primary season, a national poll tells you only who is widely known and liked, not who will win. In the later parts of the primary season a national poll can be a very imperfect proxy for a multi-state poll.
But within two months of Iowa and New Hampshire, the only polls that really matter are the polls of Iowa and New Hampshire. Why? Because the results in Iowa and New Hampshire affect voters in the later states. Many candidates will drop out after each of those states, consolidating support behind other candidates.
On December 10, 2008, Rudy Giuliani led in national polls by 5 points. But he was weak in Iowa. He lost Iowa badly, and then faded to the background.
Hillary Clinton also led the national polls that day, but Obama had eked into the lead in Iowa surveys. Many Democratic voters loved Obama but didn't think a black man could get elected. When Obama won Iowa, that fear vanished. Obama immediately rose in the polls in every state.
So, lesson No. 1 is this: national polls, where Trump's lead is the biggest and the most consistent, are nearly meaningless. Take any December 10 before the presidential primaries in this millennium, and the national polling leader that day has not won Iowa or the nomination in any contested primary.
Here's another telling fact: the more that polls refine for the likelihood of a respondent actually voting, the worse Trump does.
Trump leads Rubio in New Hampshire, 21 percent to 17 percent in a recent Adrian Gray Consulting poll. But when the pollster screened to "Likely NH GOP Voters," the result was a tie,19 percent Rubio to 18 percent Trump. Refining further to "Very Likely NH GOP Voters," Rubio takes a nominal lead within the margin of error, 19 percent to 17 percent.
Iowa's latest poll tells a similar story. Ted Cruz leads Trump in Monmouth's poll, 24 percent to 19 percent. The pollster notes, however, that if they limited the poll to voters who had participated in caucuses in the past, Cruz would lead Trump 25 to 16, nearly doubling his lead.
This pattern suggests how things might shake out in the coming weeks. As pollsters sharpen their likely-voter screens, Trump's numbers will drop.
Trump's numbers will drop still further as voters get more serious about choosing a nominee. A majority of Republicans in both Iowa and New Hampshire are still undecided. Every Trump supporter I spoke to in Iowa immediately named a secondary candidate, Paul, Rubio, or Cruz.
Americans hate Congress, Politicians, Washington, and the Republican Party. Telling a pollster you will vote for Trump may be more of an expression of disdain for the "Establishment" than an actual expression of voter intention.
Put another way: Mad-as-Hell voters have dated Trump, but they're ready to marry Cruz or Rubio.
But here's what will not happen: Trump will not crash and burn because he says some terrible thing. Attacking McCain for being a POW, making misogynist comments against Fox News hosts, mocking reporters for being disabled, and proposing a religious test for immigrants: these comments all help Trump. They help Trump because they evoke freak-outs from liberals and establishment types, which a certain kind of voter loves more than anything.
In today's world of political correctness, everything evokes freakouts. It's sexist to criticize Fed Chair Janet Yellen. It's racist to call Obama skinny. Even defending the freedom of speech is oppression. Some Americans, sick of this idiotic speech policing, have developed a habit of gravitating towards the offensive.
So Trump isn't going to blow himself up. He's simply going to fade away.
Another LOL!!!
This time I’m ROTFLMAO!!!!!!
Donald should play this before he goes on stage.
I’ve got news for this guy.
It is the media and uniparty that will fade away. Thanks to Trump!
The MSM keeps trying to define and drive the narrative in this upcoming election......
And they are FAILING miserably.
Note to any “jouranalist” trolls who may be lurking here: your credibility as objective reporters of news and commentary are as useless as the dogshit that I scraped off of my shoe this morning. No group is more worthy of ridicule and scorn as those who are in the employ of the mainstream media.
You people realize if we had started a movement of every time Trump was finished, or he stepped in it now, or he's done, or now, their famous, he's fading, just realize how rich we would be!!! I could afford a jet of my own to fly to all his rallies and speeches every other day!!!
People are so panicked, it's actually quite sad for the let down these people are going to feel when it's all over and Trump is sitting in the Oval Office behind his desk, talking things over with his people on how to Make America Great Again!!!
Note to any jouranalist trolls who may be lurking here: your credibility as objective reporters of news and commentary are as useless as the dogshit that I scraped off of my shoe this morning. No group is more worthy of ridicule and scorn as those who are in the employ of the mainstream media.
Reading this is like listening to a mental patient fantasize.
The Left is losing it.
This analyst should put his money where his mouth is and put down $1000 against Trump
People comparing polls from 2008 don’t seem to understand that the environment is entirely different now.
People who haven't voted in many years will go out to vote for him.
JMHo
Trump bump to that!!
The thing that has nagged at me since he announced his candidacy is, “Blind trust” - as in, that’s where he’ll have to put all of his assets while President, and I don’t know that he can stand to lose control of his empire for 4 or 8 years.
I see him getting out and throwing his support to Cruz, who will win the nomination.
Paul Shanklin needs to do a new parody based on the Stones’ “Not Fade Away”
They all live in the same echo chamber.
I still want Cruz, but I live me some Trump upsetting all the apple carts.
It would be a fun time watching him as POTUS driving the establishment nuts.
The "x" factor (unknown number of registered voters who will vote for the first time to vote for Trump due to being angry at government), could cause Trump to win in New Hampshire and the rest of the primaries. I doubt he will win in Iowa due to the religious component in Iowa and the fact it is a caucus instead of a usual vote and leave primary. Below is Carney's evaluation of polls that I believe are correct since I studied polls when I worked with our state party and candidates.
"Take any December 10 before the presidential primaries in this millennium, and the national polling leader that day has not won Iowa or the nomination in any contested primary."
"Trump leads Rubio in New Hampshire, 21 percent to 17 percent in a recent Adrian Gray Consulting poll. But when the pollster screened to 'Likely NH GOP Voters' the result was a tie,19 percent Rubio to 18 percent Trump. Refining further to 'Very Likely NH GOP Voters', Rubio takes a nominal lead within the margin of error, 19 percent to 17 percent."
"Iowa's latest poll tells a similar story. Ted Cruz leads Trump in Monmouth's poll, 24 percent to 19 percent. The pollster notes, however, that if they limited the poll to voters who had participated in caucuses in the past, Cruz would lead Trump 25 to 16, nearly doubling his lead."
"In today's world of political correctness, everything evokes freakouts. It's sexist to criticize Fed Chair Janet Yellen. It's racist to call Obama skinny. Even defending the freedom of speech is oppression. Some Americans, sick of this idiotic speech policing, have developed a habit of gravitating towards the offensive."
That "gravitating towards the offensive" are votes for Trump.
Even the Examiner is whistling past the GOPe graveyard.
The entire complement of personnel of EPA and DOE and DOE and HUD and a host of others had better become instantly unemployed to accompany the repeal of Civil Service if we are going to restore the Republic. Those Agencies are the effective government of the United States. Congress makes little difference and is mostly irrelevant. The Dictator at the top of the Tyranny will himself come to have less and less actual effect on the Totalitarian Bureaucracy.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.