Marco Rubio vs. Ted Cruz: The Increasingly Popular Prediction About the Gop's Future

Hot Air ^ | 10/29/2015 | Andre Prokop

[conservativejoy]

About a month ago, conservative commentator Erick Erickson wrote a post at RedState headlined, "Ted Cruz vs. Marco Rubio: This Is Where We Are Headed." Erickson predicted that eventually, "the more conservative elements" of the party would fall behind Cruz, while "the more establishment elements" would opt for Rubio. It was a bold statement, considering that both candidates were stuck in the single digits in the polls.

After Wednesday night's third Republican debate, it's much easier to see how it could happen.

Rubio swatted away an attack by his main rival for establishment support, Jeb Bush, leaving the brother and son to former presidents looking petty and small. Not long afterward, Cruz opened fire on the debate moderators, winning wild applause from the crowd and praise from conservatives online.

Throughout the night, both gave crisp, clear, and rhetorically impressive answers, far outshining the other candidates on stage. The consensus in the vast majority of the political media — conservative, liberal, and nonpartisan — was that Cruz and Rubio won.

And though the polls still show Donald Trump and Ben Carson on top, even before Wednesday night, it's become increasingly common for commentators to theorize that Cruz and Rubio are on the rise — and will end up being the two most formidable contenders for the nomination. After this debate, that theory will only become more popular. Here's why.

Rubio buried his main rival, Jeb Bush.

Rubio stood out first. After strong performances in the initial two debates, he was already viewed as on the rise — especially since onetime sorta-establishment favorite Jeb Bush's campaign has been floundering.

Lately, Bush has seen Rubio as his biggest threat. So after Rubio responded to a question from a moderator about the number of Senate votes he's been missing, Jeb tried to take him on. "Just resign and let somebody else take the job," he suggested.

Rubio's response was devastating. He started by pointing out that John McCain missed a huge amount of votes during his 2007-'08 presidential campaign, and Bush didn't seem to mind. "I don't remember you ever complaining about John McCain's vote record," he said. "The only reason you're doing it now is because we're running for the same position. Someone convinced you attacking me is going to help you."

The response had the ring of truth to it — the vote-missing attack is a phony and opportunistic one — but it was that final line above that really made Rubio seem above the fray. You're doing this because you're losing, Rubio implied, and even you don't really believe it.

Rubio easily got the better of the exchange, and it could strengthen an already-growing sense among GOP insiders that Bush just isn't up to the task. Rubio's main task in this debate was to prevent Jeb Bush from bringing him down a peg, and he accomplished it easily.

Cruz scorched the debate moderators.

Later on, it was Ted Cruz's turn to shine — and he did it with the vintage Newt Gingrich 2012 move of attacking the debate moderators.

"The questions that have been asked so far in this debate illustrate why the American people don't trust the media," he said. "This is not a cage match. You look at the questions — Donald Trump, are you a comic book villain? Ben Carson, can you do math? John Kasich, will you insult two people over here? Marco Rubio, why don't you resign? Jeb Bush, why have your numbers fallen? How about talking about the substantive issues?"

It was a "moment" of the sort Cruz lacked in the first two debates. The audience applauded wildly — he was saying exactly what many conservatives across the country were thinking. And GOP pollster Frank Luntz's focus group loved it:

Stylistically, Cruz performed strongly for the rest of the debate too — he didn't seem too angry, and even cracked a few jokes.

The case for Cruz versus Rubio

So far in this GOP campaign, political observers have been absolutely terrible at predicting what would happen next. So definitely take the following with many, many grains of salt.

But in recent weeks, more and more commentators have been moving toward Erickson's belief that both Rubio and Cruz are on the rise.

Already, the betting markets — a good measure of the current conventional wisdom — view Rubio, and not Bush, as the favorite to win the nomination. The New York Times's Ross Douthat called him the "unusual front-runner" last weekend, and Vox's Ezra Klein has predicted that Rubio will win eventually. This is mainly because despite a big advantage in both cash and name recognition, Jeb Bush has failed to catch on so far — and Rubio seems to be the obvious alternative.

The logic for a Rubio candidacy — he has a fresher name and face, he's more charismatic, he could well be a stronger general election contender — has been looking more and more persuasive. Neither party elites nor voters have fallen behind Rubio yet, but it seems to commentators like this is the obvious thing for them to do.

Predictions of a Cruz surge have been offered more gingerly. The basic assumption is that Trump and Carson are both doomed, and that Cruz will eventually inherit their support, since he's a more experienced politician who seems to be putting together a more serious campaign operation (with some seriously impressive fundraising from both big donors and the grassroots). He's positioned himself as tough on unauthorized immigration, which could please some Trump fans, and he's also built close ties to religious right groups, whose supporters currently like Ben Carson a lot.

"FACT: Ted Cruz is running the best campaign of any presidential candidate," the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza wrote this week. "If I had to put money on a delegate leader coming out of Super Tuesday, it would be Cruz," RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende tweeted. And some other commentators who once affirmatively proclaimed that Cruz couldn't win — because he was too despised by party elites — are now less sure.

Reasons to be more skeptical

On paper, all this makes a ton of sense. But little about this campaign has resembled what makes sense on paper.

Nobody foresaw the months-long poll domination of Donald Trump, many commentators have prematurely declared his collapse, few expected Ben Carson to surge in the polls after the first debate, and many predicted Scott Walker would be one of the most formidable contenders. (Walker quit the race more than a month ago.)

So, yes, prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. More specifically, both Cruz and Rubio have weaknesses that could hold them back.

Jeb Bush's Super PAC still has tens of millions of dollars it could spend trashing Rubio's reputation — and other attacks might not be swatted away so easily as the one on Rubio's voting record. Other candidates could hurt Rubio by attacking his past support for comprehensive immigration reform. Plus, there has been some chatter that Rubio isn't doing a particularly good job building a campaign operation, particularly in the early voting states. And even if Bush vanished from the race and Rubio picked up all his support, he'd still be trailing both Trump and Carson.

For Cruz, the main problem is, well, that the theory assumes Trump and Carson will vanish. That still could happen, and the history of non-politician candidates suggests it will — but the clock is ticking. Trump's ability to dominate headlines between debates, and the enthusiasm shown for Ben Carson on social media, could keep them around for some time. Cruz has spent years positioning himself to run against the Washington establishment, but his credentials as a political outsider are obviously inferior to theirs.

While watching this debate, though, it was easy to imagine both Cruz and Rubio rising above everyone else — and battling it out for the nomination in the end.

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Donald Trump will "politically MASSACRE" snarky little Marco "Amnesty" Rubio at the next GOP Presidential Debate ... by ATTACKING Rubio over the H1B Visa issue.

They debate television crews will need a ten-man bucket and mop brigade to mop the "political blood" off the floor ...


================================


I'm a GREAT Ted Cruz supporter ...

I spearheaded and organized the FIRST and VERY successful "Ted Cruz Florida Grassroots Leadership Conference" on 18 July 2015 in Orlando.


BUT ... as a Senior Aerospace Mechanical Engineer ... I've seen LOTS of Americans Computer Programmers, Engineers (et al) get FIRED and replaced by Indians and other H1B Visa "drones" ...

"Every" American scientist and engineer live in FEAR of H1B Visas ... trust me ...


Finally ... Ted Cruz's (otherwise brilliant campaign) comes to a screeching "Warp-Speed-Nine" DEAD-STOP in the future debate where Donald Trump CHALLENGES Ted Cruz on H1B Visas.

At that point, Ted Cruz's campaign is OVER - DEAD - FINISHED.




Jeff Roe (Ted Cruz National Campaign Manager) ... are you LISTENING ?????




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[conservativejoy]

Rubio gave a speech in Spanish to an Amnesty advocacy group and said that he was still for amnesty.

[jpsb]

It was as plain as day that either Rubio or John Kashic would emerge as the establishments' candidate. Jeb is just a horrible candidate, Carly has a horrible record and Walker was in over his head. That left either Rubio or Kashic advantage to Rubio. Easy call to make a month ago.

On anti-establishment side we have Trump, Carson and Cruz. I think Carson will fade as the vetting of him gets serious. So IMHO it is either Cruz or Trump to take on Rubio advantage Trump.

Since I do not trust Cruz at all I am worried that Cruz might just hang in to ensure a Rubio win. I see Cruz as the stealth establishment candidate. Cruz and Trump split the anti GOPe votes Rubio wins by getting all of the establishment votes. 2016 could be 2012 all over again with the conservative vote split, the GOPe wins again.

Hope I am wrong but I see the above as a very real possibility.

[conservativejoy]

I have followed Cruz since he ran for Senator. I do believe he is the true Conservative in the race. I wouldn’t hire Rubio to bus tables. I like Trump, would never vote for Carson.

[jpsb]

Well I do not trust Cruz at all, maybe I am wrong, but I do not think so. And I will remind everyone what I was right about Bush back in 2000, empty suit and not a conservative.

[conservativejoy]

Cruz won several Supreme Court decisions in favor of Religious Liberty and the 2nd Amendment, as well as a landmark case protecting U.S. Sovereignty from the World Court. His record in the Senate has been one of fighting the GOPe for Conservatism. He is the only Senator with a !00% rating from Conservative Review an a 98% rating from another Conservative group.

He has been a fierce advocate for veterans and the NRA, doing pro bono legal work for both.

Cruz and Bush are completely different. Bush does not even like Cruz, which as far as I am concerned is a good thing.

[Yashcheritsiy]

That's right. Trust the media paid for polls. They'll honestly tell us how the most conservative candidate in the race is doing.

You know, at some point, people are going to have to get over this "polls that don't tell me what I want to hear are all just made up" nonsense.

Cruz has *consistently* been sitting in the middle of the single digits for months, in every polls that's come out, whatever the source, whatever the MoE and sample size. For months. Time to face reality - the numbers are real. Cruz isn't doing so hot. We can speculate all day long as to the reasons why, but the numbers stay the same whether you want to accept them or not.

[Yashcheritsiy]

Besides, most of these polls are intended as push polls.

Free Republic Dictionary:

Push-poll, n. Any poll which contains results that a FReeper disagrees with.

Things will change as the backbenchers quit.

Well sure, things will change - but in what way?

I really don't see Cruz picking up much once the backbenchers drop out.

What happens when Bush, Christie, Paul, Kasich, Gilmore, etc. drop out? Their support will go to Rubio, the remaining overtly pro-amnesty guy out there.

When Fiorina drops out, much of her support will probably go to Rubio as well.

I could see Jindal, Huckabee, and Santorum's support going to Cruz. So Cruz picks up another, what, 8%?

If it comes down to Trump, Rubio, Carson, and Cruz, we'll see Rubio and Trump with about 30% each, Carson with about 25%, and Cruz with 15%.

[FreeReign]

That's right. Trust the media paid for polls. They'll honestly tell us how the most conservative candidate in the race is doing.

You know, at some point, people are going to have to get over this "polls that don't tell me what I want to hear are all just made up" nonsense.

Sure, and at some point, people are going to have to get over the "there's election fraud" nonsense.

And at some point people are going to have to get over the "media is biased' nonsense".

Way to much critical thought and questioning of our gate keepers going on.

[Yashcheritsiy]

Gronk gronk - logical fallacy alert.

You just committed egregious fallacy of equivocation and non sequitur.

Or put simply, just because the media are biased doesn’t mean that every poll out there - regardless of source - is suddenly “cooked” so that Cruz doesn’t get the numbers you think he should be getting. The one does not follow from the other.

[Slyfox]

I really don't see Cruz picking up much once the backbenchers drop out.

Last night I happened to notice that NBC quoted their own online poll as if it were completely scientific, you know the kind with a 3% + or - factor in it. It showed Both Trump and Carson at 26% and Cruz at 10%, but it was an online poll.

The only poll that really matter is election day. Until then the candidates are getting weeded out.

There are also the candidates own internal polls, which every candidate, if they are serious contenders do on their own.

The best thing to do is keep an eye on the process and see who emerges and what kind of leadership they display.

So far the GOPe candidates are losing badly.

That, my friend is a huge win for us.

[FreeReign]

Or put simply, just because the media are biased doesn’t mean that every poll out there - regardless of source - is suddenly “cooked” so that Cruz doesn’t get the numbers you think he should be getting. The one does not follow from the other.

Okay. The media is biased but the media paid for and media promoted polls aren't.

Sure.

[jpsb]

Rubio is a known liar.

October 24, 2010 while campaigning for the Senate: “Earned path to citizenship is basically code for amnesty. It's what they call it. And the reality of it is this. This has to do with the bottom line that America cannot be the only country in the world that does not enforce its immigration laws. It is unfair to the people that have legally entered this country to create an alternative pathway for individuals who entered illegally and knowingly did so. And all I'm saying is that if you do that...you will never have a legal immigration system that works. No one is going to follow the law if there is an easier way to do it.”

June 27, 2013 as an elected Senator: "Those who once had no hope will give their kids the chance at a life they always wanted for themselves. Here in America, generations of unfulfilled dreams will finally come to pass. And that is why I support this reform (Amnesty)--not just because I believe in immigrants but because I believe in America even more."

[jpsb]

Cruz is a very good lawyer, I don’t think a very good lawyer is what this country needs right now. Cruz is also a professional politician another thing I don’t think this country wants right now.