Posted on 10/02/2015 8:51:07 AM PDT by conservativejoy
Despite the oversized field and non-traditional candidates, the battle for the Republican presidential nomination is starting to shape up in familiar ways. There will be a champion of the establishment wing taking on the champion of the party base to determine the nominee.
One interesting possibility is that this year’s finalists could both be young, articulate and Hispanic. There’s a long road ahead, but it is very reasonable to envision Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz as the last candidates standing.
Among establishment candidates, Rubio almost certainly has enough charisma and eloquence to overcome Jeb Bush’s claim of inevitability. And, other than Bush, it’s hard to find a serious contender among the establishment crowd. Some see Ohio Gov. John Kasich as a possibility, but there is little evidence he has any support beyond a small group of reporters.
As for the outsider field, that is currently dominated by three people who have never held office before: Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina. It’s been very healthy for these outsiders to shake things up in the Grand Old Party. Without them, the establishment never would have figured out how unpopular the idea of a third Bush in the White House had become.
But I don’t believe any of the non-politicians will actually win the nomination. It’s quite possible that one or more of them will win a caucus or primary. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to have Carson emerge victorious in Iowa. But winning the nomination is a different matter entirely. Sooner or later, the lack of political experience will drag them down. It’s unfortunate that the process has evolved to the point where only professional politicians can win, but that’s the reality we face in 2016.
Of all the politicians left in the race, Cruz is the only one likely to have any appeal to supporters of Trump, Carson and Fiorina.
This could set up a truly fascinating opportunity for the Republican Party. For years, pundits have wondered how the Republicans could ever make inroads with minority voters. Democratic analysts have gleefully assumed that the growing number of Hispanic voters would automatically translate to a growing number of Democrats.
But that could all change very quickly. Imagine week after week, month after month, debate after debate filled with stories about two Hispanic men competing for the Republican presidential nomination. All of a sudden, it’s easy to imagine more Hispanic voters taking part in the Republican primaries. And every single story would highlight the reality that regardless of who wins, the GOP would become the first major political party to nominate a Hispanic presidential candidate.
One senior Republican insider believes that “the logic of a Ted-Marco final would be challenging for Democrats.” He believes that “it would present Hispanic voters with a clear choice between lip service about immigration reform after years of failure or the profound and the very real symbolism of two immensely different but talented Republican Hispanics poised to lead the nation.”
Obviously, there’s still a long way to go. But the possibility of a Cruz-Rubio finale for the Republican nomination is one of the more likely — and interesting — possibilities.
Scott Rasmussen is delusional. Donald Trump is leading every poll in the 20’s and 30’s with Cruz and Rubio at 6% or less depending. But Rasmussen is smugly confident that these two guys who were not polling that well before Trump got in the race will somehow miraculously surge. Don’t hold your breath.
Every new crazy vote the Republican Congress takes just pizzes the electorate off even worse at politicians whether they deserve it or not.
The Republican nomination is Donald Trumps to lose. Unless he commits an unforced error he’s the guy.
Peddling Rubio on Rove- RNC orders .
Rubio has nothing to offer outside Zuckerberg gets more cheap labor.
I agree with the premise of this article an think Rubio will be our next President.
I think this is a very real possibility, that it will come down to Rubio and Cruz, and that Carson, Fiorina, and Trump will fade. My preferred candidate is Cruz.
Don’t pay any attention to that jobs report. Now just go out there and buy stocks, new car, take a cruise, buy the wife some new jewelry I say! Trust me, the economy is doing fine. /S
That is Trump's specialty, just about every time he opens his mouth. It will catch up to him. Incredibly high negatives.
I agree with you. Trumps New York shtick will wear thin. If he cuts that out he may win though. He can CounterPunch without slapping like a school kid.
I wouldn’t bet against it, but I don’t think Trump is going anywhere.
These writers have been writing about Trump falling out for four months now. Failing that, they now write as if he already has. LOL
Talk about living in the land of make believe.
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