Posted on 09/17/2015 10:33:37 AM PDT by conservativejoy
If the general environment fits Cruz nicely, the dynamic of the campaign is favorable to him, too.
Ted Cruz isn’t topping the polls or dominating the conversation, but he’s one of the winners of the past few months.
His odds of winning the nomination have increased more than anyone else’s besides Donald Trump, and if you believe (reasonably enough) that Trump isn’t built to last, more than anyone else’s, period.
Let’s review. There was always the danger of Cruz, who made his national reputation on the strength of a misbegotten government shutdown, seeming like too much of a bomb-thrower. That was before it began to look like the Republican Party is open to a candidate only slightly less disruptive than Auguste Vaillant, the 19th-century French anarchist who struck a blow against politics as usual by literally throwing a bomb into the French Chamber of Deputies in 1893 (the establishment wasn’t amused — it executed him).
Such is the disgust with the Republican leadership, that there is no longer such a thing as going too far. Cruz could burn John Boehner in effigy, and no one would bat an eye. Cruz could make a citizen’s arrest of Mitch McConnell on the Senate floor on grounds of gross crimes of omission against the constitutional republic, and the Luntz focus group would applaud his plucky initiative. In sum, there’s nothing Cruz could do short of pissing in the Yankee Bean soup in the Senate dining room that would be too outlandish, and even then his most devoted fans might say, “It’s about damn time."
This must be liberating for Cruz, who has already called McConnell a liar and blamed Boehner and McConnell for not stopping the Iran nuclear deal — and he’s just getting started.
If the general environment fits Cruz nicely, the dynamic of the campaign is favorable to him, too. There are few things Cruz should welcome more than the ongoing war between Trump, the anti-establishment gorilla in the room who is a major obstacle in his path, and the foremost establishment candidate, Jeb Bush, whom Cruz needs to be as weak as possible. Cruz can stand by and hope both sides lose, which isn’t a far-fetched bet.
While other campaigns have been flummoxed and discombobulated by the rise of Trump, Cruz hasn’t. He has a simple political True North — go where the base is. Once it became obvious Trump was catching on with the grass roots, Cruz’s play was obvious: Start acting as if Ronald Reagan’s only failure was not to have handed down a 12th Commandment — thou shalt not criticize Donald Trump.
Cruz can be very patient waiting for the mogul to come down to earth. The Texas senator has an ideological and geographical base that means he can play the long game.
Consider Iowa. Cruz is sitting in third place there, a comfortable place to be in the late-breaking state. He has captured the intense loyalty of a portion of the grass roots (evident in his consistently crowd-pleasing speeches) and lines up for the caucuses better than Trump does. Cruz is a preacher’s son who announced his campaign at Liberty University. He speaks forcefully on the social issues and is a down-the-line conservative, without a hint of a heterodoxy.
If he were to emerge and win Iowa, he would have a much stronger financial and institutional base to follow up his victory than the immediate past winners, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee. Cruz has raised more hard money than anyone else, and has significant super PAC support. If he merely held his own until March 1, he’d be in position to sop up delegates in the SEC states, including Texas.
On top of this, Cruz is very smart, disciplined and doesn’t make unforced errors — if he gets an opening, he’ll make the most of it.
Getting that opening will depend on Trump and Ben Carson fading (and someone else, like Carly Fiorina, not rising). But all Cruz needs is for the voters to become slightly, and only slightly, more desirous of political experience.
The Overton window has shifted enough that Cruz, in the Senate less than three years, almost all of it spent in political pyrotechnics, looks like the sober statesman. Compared to Donald Trump, he’s practically Everett Dirksen. Compared to Carson, he’s a career politician — a veteran of the George W. Bush campaign and administration who ran for the U.S. Senate as soon as plausible, and apparently has no intention of leaving unless it’s for a promotion.
It once seemed that Scott Walker could best Cruz with his record of accomplishment, but so far Republican voters aren’t in an accomplishment mood. It’s possible to imagine Cruz’s team secretly thinking, “What good fortune that our candidate has never governed anything, or seriously tried to pass major legislation.”
Of course, Cruz’s potential may never be realized. He should, in theory, be the elected officeholder next in line to pick up support from the outsiders, but he is very different stylistically from them. While Trump always lets it fly extemporaneously, Cruz is extremely deliberate. While Trump and Carson ooze sincerity, Cruz can let his calculation show — he sincerely supported trade promotion authority, until the politics shifted, and then he sincerely opposed it. While Trump and Carson are refreshingly different as communicators, Cruz is practiced and stentorian. He could make ordering a ham-and-cheese sandwich sound like a speech. (Trump is also, in many respects, a raging moderate, whose support ranges much more widely across the party than Cruz’s.)
However shrewdly Cruz is positioned in the primary, his candidacy might be a heavy lift in a general election. But there’s time to worry about that later. Cruz certainly has a more intuitive theory of the case than Jeb Bush: to wit, you have to win the primary to have a chance to win the general.
Unlike Trump and Carson, Cruz doesn’t need the usual political rules to be utterly suspended to win the nomination. He just needs them to be different, and to get some lucky bounces along the way. That looks likelier than it did six months ago.
In other news, Walker has fired his campaign manager...
Cruz is quietly getting his leadership teams and delegates together in every state.
Because they aren't debates. They're dog-and-pony shows.
The non-liberals among the American voting public already know what they want: they want someone who is as intelligent as Cruz and as bad@$$ as Trump. They can't have both, so bad@$$ trumps (pun intended) intelligence, and they hope President Trump listens to the advice of VP Cruz, the way Kirk used to listen to Spock.
They watched the 'debate' and hoped that Trump didn't lose his bad@$$, since they can reasonably assume that Cruz isn't going to lose his intelligence. Trump didn't lose his bad@$$, which is why he 'won' the 'debate' among the people who were watching.
He is. These cattle-calls we watch every few weeks are not debates.
He is. These cattle-calls we watch every few weeks are not debates.
Well that’s what they are always going to be. He needs to get better at what is reality.
“Cruz was a National Debate Champion two years in a row...”
“So why is he middle of the pack at best in these debates?”
Cruz is playing the long game - and right now the aim is to just stay in the game while others around him eventually make mistakes or otherwise fall out. Too many players, let things settle down to a more reasonable number. He is a tactician - probably smarter in terms of pure intellect than anyone on the stage. Trump is a better communicator to the masses, which include conservatives who love him and many who hate him. Cruz will retain all their respect, and the longer he stays in the better his chances respect will turn to support.
Bickering? No. But exposure would be great. The average voter doesn’t pay attention to the day to day business of the senate. Kim Davis is important but not to all the republican primary voters. You and I follow it. Exposure early is important especially for the non news followers.
BTW his lack of acrimony with Trump is a good thing.
“Cruz is practiced and stentorian. He could make ordering a ham-and-cheese sandwich sound like a speech.”
I have to admit that one made me smile.
Cruz can’t just wait. He needs to do something. I hope he’s able to figure it out.
And, no, these are not debates - they are money making entertainment for the networks only slightly disguised as political debate. The networks know their audience and what sells. Shame on us and Americans at large for stepping in it. It has that “Christians in the Roman Colosseum with the lions” flavor about it. (I don’t own a tv and no I didn’t watch the “debates.” We should demand a better format or decline to participate.)
What facts? These aren't debates.
Why didn't answer my questions?....can't debate?
Is arguing (and wining) in front of SCOTUS little league?
Why is your boy, who I am not against, Walker so low in the polls?
How do you think Cruz would do against any of the other candidates in a parliamentary debate format or a Lincoln-Douglas debate format? You know...a real debate.
Cruz was a National Debate Champion two years in a row and
has a debate event named for him at Princeton.
***************
And when he gets into a sanctioned structured debate following
debating rules he’ll probably be tops. But this gab fest is far from
a structured debate. JMO
I hope for Walker’s sake he doesn’t have to debate Cruz one on one.
Especially when the moderator shamelessly cuts him off and doesn’t call on him for almost an hour.
“Cruz is not a brilliant debater....maybe in college but this is the big leagues.”
Glad you at least recognize the national debate champion in college was brilliant then. Big leagues? Sure, he’s on stage with a lot of talented people, but he knows more about the big leagues than most can imagine. He’s argued 9 cases before the U.S. Supreme Court. Assuredly experienced in playing in the big leagues. There aren’t many lawyers that have argued that many cases before the highest court in the land. While in law school my constitutional law classes were taught by the lawyer who had argued, to my recollection, more Supreme Court cases than anyone alive at that time. I can assure you that such people are highly expert at arguing in a cogent manner, which Cruz has excelled.
It’s hard to be an expert when you aren’t given the air time, and aren’t rude enough to constantly interrupt everyone.
Exactly. MSM is trying to keep focus off him because he is very effective in presenting ideas.
Well Nappy, stick with Walkman and this winter you can help him shovel snow this winter, which will happen before Cruz goes home.
Obviously, you're not familiar with how a real debate is structured.
Psssssssst!
They're not debates.
They're multi-party press conferences.
The Republican debates in this election cycle of 2016 with 17 candidates in stage has become a freak show of the show American Idol.
Other than her attack dog appeal why would any true blue conservative support Carley ?
John Kasinage is a waste of space and air in the Republican field.
Rand Paul would have done better as a Democrat candidate.
Linda Graham should have ran as a Democrat also.
* What’s Happening * Freddy Rerun ( Chris Christy ) Stubbs should go back to New Joy Zee , PLEASE !
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