Posted on 09/15/2015 6:56:05 PM PDT by sushiman
Japanese beef imports to drop further than thought
Japan, the world's largest importer of US beef, will see imports shrink further than previously expected, as exportable supplies of the meat tighten.
The US Department of Agriculture bureau in Tokyo forecast Japanese beef imports falling to a five-year low of 727,000 tonnes this year, 13,000 tonnes below the department's official forecast.
The forecast came despite an increased forecast for consumption, of 1.24m tonnes, narrowly higher year on year.
However, the extra consumption will be met from stocks rather than imports, which will drop for a second successive year, as exportable supplies from Japan's two top origins, Australia and the US, are squeezed.
Tighter supplies
The bureau flagged the "high price" of import from both Australia and the US, "as cattle slaughter and beef production in both countries is projected to fall in 2015".
Both Australian and US producers are expected to focus more on growing herds, after liquidation sprees in recent years encouraged by dry weather and rising beef and cattle prices.
Australian exports to Japan may come under particular pressure, given the extent of demand for its grass-fed beef from other buyers – including the US.
This factor could offset the advantage that Australian beef has in Japan, thanks to lower tariffs, 10 percentage points below those for US supplies for frozen cuts.
'PEDv cases have noticeably fallen'
Japanese pork imports are also likely to fall this year, by 5% to 1.25m tonnes, as the effects of an outbreak of porcine epidemic diahorrea virus (PEDv) dissipates and the rate of domestic pork production increases.
"As reported PEDv cases have noticeably fallen… Japan's 2015 domestic hog slaughter is anticipated to recover modestly in 2015, projected at around 16.4m head,"
PEDv, which also devastated US production over the past two winters, reduced the speed of pig slaughter.
Japan is the world's top pork importer.
They prefer others which is evidenced right there in your excerpt by the fact that they lower tariffs for the Australians. That shows they would rather have a different supplier.
Or, it shows that the Aussies were better negotiators. Probably some of both...
Tell me why he always singles out Japan (along with China and Mexico ) and never mentions Germany , for example , who has just as large a trade deficit with the U.S. as Japan does .
He said the farmers (beef producers) have protested it - different than saying the Japanese in general don’t want it.
I think he just doesn’t get that far on the list. What I hear Trump say about “unfair trade” (and I definitely don’t have time to listen to even 1/10 of what the Donald says — granted it’s mostly repetitive) is in the order China (magnitude of deficit), Mexico (proximity), then Japan (almost everyone can relate to Japanese car imports, even though a lot are built here these days - I own an Outback made in Indiana & love it.)
Your comment about Germany is VERY interesting though: I didn’t know that, and surely Germany is not “beating us” because of lower labor costs or fewer regs. So, how are they doing it? Work ethic alone? Knowing could be very instructive to our own problems...
I would add that if Trump mentions more than 3 nations, and the reasons for the deficit with Germany are different, or maybe even if not, then the issue becomes too murky for simple presentation.
On the other hand, it might be that Germany is the best example of all, of poor negotiation on our part. Hmmm...
Maybe others can comment - I’d love to learn.
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