Posted on 09/15/2015 6:56:05 PM PDT by sushiman
Japanese beef imports to drop further than thought
Japan, the world's largest importer of US beef, will see imports shrink further than previously expected, as exportable supplies of the meat tighten.
The US Department of Agriculture bureau in Tokyo forecast Japanese beef imports falling to a five-year low of 727,000 tonnes this year, 13,000 tonnes below the department's official forecast.
The forecast came despite an increased forecast for consumption, of 1.24m tonnes, narrowly higher year on year.
However, the extra consumption will be met from stocks rather than imports, which will drop for a second successive year, as exportable supplies from Japan's two top origins, Australia and the US, are squeezed.
Tighter supplies
The bureau flagged the "high price" of import from both Australia and the US, "as cattle slaughter and beef production in both countries is projected to fall in 2015".
Both Australian and US producers are expected to focus more on growing herds, after liquidation sprees in recent years encouraged by dry weather and rising beef and cattle prices.
Australian exports to Japan may come under particular pressure, given the extent of demand for its grass-fed beef from other buyers – including the US.
This factor could offset the advantage that Australian beef has in Japan, thanks to lower tariffs, 10 percentage points below those for US supplies for frozen cuts.
'PEDv cases have noticeably fallen'
Japanese pork imports are also likely to fall this year, by 5% to 1.25m tonnes, as the effects of an outbreak of porcine epidemic diahorrea virus (PEDv) dissipates and the rate of domestic pork production increases.
"As reported PEDv cases have noticeably fallen… Japan's 2015 domestic hog slaughter is anticipated to recover modestly in 2015, projected at around 16.4m head,"
PEDv, which also devastated US production over the past two winters, reduced the speed of pig slaughter.
Japan is the world's top pork importer.
Why buy from us when they have that great Hiroshima beef?
By the way, all of Donald’s speech is like that: erratic, tangential and generally childlike.
I don't know how you can state that when the report reveals preference for Australian grass-fed as opposed to American frozen cuts. I've also heard often the Japanese are not enamored with the quality of US beef.
Here's the contrary statements direct from your excerpt:
Australian exports to Japan may come under particular pressure, given the extent of demand for its grass-fed beef from other buyers – including the US.
This factor could offset the advantage that Australian beef has in Japan, thanks to lower tariffs, 10 percentage points below those for US supplies for frozen cuts.
BTW, I know some farmers who are calling their cattle grass-fed while finishing them with grain. They get the highest dollar for their slaughter cattle. ;-)
Two words: rib eye. And I'm not talking about some dry aged super-expensive cut, just your average ordinary supermarket ribeye steak, cooked low and slow over charcoal. Just had some a couple weeks ago and it was almost a religious experience. Cut with a fork, marbling that turned the steaks into tender, buttery slabs of goodness.
But that aside, some of the most flavorful cuts are tough and chewy, and cheap. Braise it to tenderness and it's some of the best eating. If pot roast isn't hoity toity enough for you, there's sous vide.
I think Trump’s (and others’) point is being, at the very least, misconstrued here. The point is not that we can balance our trade deficit with Japan by selling them more beef (although of course we would like to.) Rather, Trump is saying that it is crazy that we are not exporting to Japan many more billions of dollars of other goods - and a good part of the reason is trade policies. In quite a few areas, given a level trade policy playing field, US companies are competitive (lower price than mfg. in Japan, yet higher quality than China, etc.) I know this from direct experience in a case where a MAJOR Japanese firm was looking at the company I worked for as a potential vendor. Unfortunately, the project developed in a different direction & we were not needed, but, the economics of it were ok, and would have been even better if Japanese trade restrictions were even-handed.
You might say, the beef is not just about beef...
Rural America made the transition. In the long run, most of those small Japanese rice farms should adapt, too, because they just aren’t efficient enough. Japan would be smart to help them “transition” to areas (products) where they can compete with the world.
I vote my wallet. As I said, the typical US beef that you can get from the Supermarket is just too tough to eat as a steak, although it fries up well enough when sliced, spiced, marinated, and used in Chinese stir-fry style recipes.
On the other hand, Japanese rice-fed beef, although marbled like lace and tender enough to eat with a fork, has about as much flavor as bread dough, plus it’s crazy expensive.
Aussie beef grown for Japanese market splits the difference. Reasonably tender, good flavor, pricier than the US stuff and a bit harder to find, but nice if you can get it.
“Japan is the world’s largest importer of US beef .”
” Trump is saying that it is crazy that we are not exporting to Japan many more billions of dollars of other goods “
Such as ? Believe me , they are buying everything that NEED from the USa and elsewhere .
” small Japanese rice farms “
I’m talking rural folks who have reg. jobs but have a little farmland so grow rice to use for their families and sell the remainder . These farms account for the majority of “ rice farms “ in Japan .
What did Trump say (actual in-context words) and do you have a link to allow us to check your assertion?
He’s said the same thing , more or less , in countless speeches of late . 8:10 - 9:10 ...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q60QKb24G14
They have to eat but that doesn’t mean they want it. They prefer others which is evidenced right there in your excerpt by the fact that they lower tariffs for the Australians. That shows they would rather have a different supplier.
In my travels I have heard numerous times that the Japanese do not like American beef. It does not have a great following.
Trump is right. They don’t want it. But they buy it because the population has to eat.
Trump is right. They set tariffs higher on US Beef than for other nations. We can set tariffs on their imports.
But understand Trump. He’s saying we can set tariffs on their exports to the US. He’s not saying we ‘will’, he’s saying we ‘can’ which means it can be used as leverage in trade negotiations.
Now if the Japanese don’t want our beef, there are a few options. ONE, we can tell US beef producers to get with the program and start to improve the quality of their beef. Or TWO, we can tell the Japanese to lower the barriers on other US products such as wines. The Pacific Northwest produce some of the world’s best wines and the Japanese love it. But there are local Japanese producers and there are global competitors that tend to limit the US importation of wine.
Many things can be done and Trump knows how to get it done.
As a side note. During the 90’s I flew from SFO to Narita four times a year. On every trip I was approached at SFO to be a rice mule for some Japanese citizen. No sweat. You pay at the counter and the bag of rice is loaded on the plane, unloaded and delivered to a station at the Narita. Only catch was I had to claim it. I started charging $25 for the “service”. As I recall there is a 100kg/year limit so a 50 lb bag four times a year was under that.
For example:
The tariff + other taxes (I assume) doubled the price (of a pair of leather boots!) to the purchaser in Japan. I believe the tariff would be 30%. Most (Japanese tariffs) are not that high, but, still, you think they don’t severely affect U.S. exports to Japan?
BTW, for “all”, here’s a link to the Japanese tariff schedule in English:
http://www.customs.go.jp/english/tariff/2012_1/index.htm
Ah, then it’s even more inefficient than I thought. (Believe me, I know - my family does some gardening, and while it works out ok for us, if our time is factored in, it’d never be practical on this scale to sell into the U.S. food supply...)
Or, it shows that the Aussies were better negotiators. Probably some of both...
Trump's point, precisely!
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