Study Predicts Antarctica Ice Melt if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned

nytimes.com ^ | SEPT. 11, 2015 | JUSTIN GILLIS

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Burning all the world’s deposits of coal, oil and natural gas would raise the temperature enough to melt the entire ice sheet covering Antarctica, driving the level of the sea up by more than 160 feet, scientists reported Friday.

In a major surprise to the scientists, they found that half the melting could occur in as little as a thousand years, causing the ocean to rise by something on the order of a foot per decade, roughly 10 times the rate at which it is rising now. Such a pace would almost certainly throw human society into chaos, forcing a rapid retreat from the world’s coastal cities.

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

Didn’t fools like these once predict that if there was a thermonuclear war, it would melt the icecaps?

[marron]

Melting Antarctica would be a boon for humanity.

Just think of all the realtors kids who will have shoes for school.

[EEGator]

The Earth doesn’t have a feedback loop, and the climate models are exactly the same as the actual climate...

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

When they say “all fossil fuels”, they are probably assuming that most people have no clue as to the ridiculously vast amounts of fossil fuel there are. For example, here is just the American estimated coal reserves:

http://i.imgur.com/rpgozSL.gif

In past it was said that if the US used 100% coal power, it would take us from 300 to 500 years to use up these reserves, at tremendously increased consumption.

[Boiler Plate]

At least the we can get those Nazi saucer bases...

With the soon to be discovered Type XXII U-Boats

[ProudFossil]

And if all the people in the world stand on one side of Catalina Island it will tip over and sink. Woe is us. Doom is everywhere. And if a politician told the truth the heavens would open up and angels would descend singing songs of praise but we would all be deaf. We just can’t win.

[Bubba_Leroy]

Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!

Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...

Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!

Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

Ghostbusters (1984)

[JimRed]

If you burned it all at once, maybe! But it would take a few hundred years just to collect it all for burning!

[SES1066]

The same condition would hold true if the Siberian or Deccan Traps (sheet lava fissures) were to restart. It is also possible that Yellowstone or Toba super-volcanos erupt. It is also possible that we could get another Chicxulub impact which might do a little more damage.

What I do not know from this writeup is that if the authors took into account offsetting effects that could potentially mitigate the full scale damage they describe? We KNOW that increased temperatures are very likely to increase cloud formation and reflect heat out into space. However this is a computation that is beyond almost all computing and modeling. You are talking about cubic miles of atmosphere from the surface to the stratosphere and all the variables that can effect the same.

Do they take into account the Antarctic isolate weather zone which, being surrounded by open water, serves to keep the continent in the deep freeze?

Do their studies assume any equilibrium factor other than clouds as the Earth does radiate heat over the night side and takes up heat over the open ocean? The longer the time span of fossil fuel use, the more these effects will modify the results.

Do they have any adjustments for using non-fossil fuels like nuclear power?

So, ASSUMING the best of intentions, were any mitigating factors thrown into this modeling? What is their ‘fudge factor’ and which case are we hearing; worst, middle or best?

Actually, they lost me when they said all fossil fuels. We can now extract more oil than ever but there are still non-recoverable reserves. So I have a lot of questions about what appears to be such a bad scenario.

[blackdog]

Ten times the rate it is rising now is ten times zero.

These people just don't give up on that global disaster paycheck do they?

[broken_arrow1]

Cinder Planet warning

[TigersEye]

...causing the ocean to rise by something on the order of a foot per decade, roughly 10 times the rate at which it is rising now.

Utterly ridiculous nonsense!

Claim That Sea Level Is Rising Is a Total Fraud

Sea levels began to rise 18k years ago at the end of the last glacial period. They have risen about 135 meters since then which is an average of 7.5 millimeters per year. That is an average of 750 mm per century (29.5 inches) which is far more than the average over the last century.

From 1880 to 2000 sea level rose about 20 cm or just under 8 inches. Far less than the nearly 30 inches per century average over the last 18,000 years.

[SES1066]

Answering my own query, from the Yahoo/Newsweek article on this study; “The paper takes a long view at the planet’s worst-case scenario.” The model appears to be based on the amount of carbon used and put into circulation. If ‘all’ is used, the quote is +9 celsius (+16.2 F) over current temps - “an unsustainable increase that would make the world unrecognizable!”

[TigersEye]

In my previous post the chart of Recent Sea Level Rise shows a rise of 20 cm in 12 decades. That is 1.666 cm per decade or .65 inches. Ten times that would be 6.5 inches not a foot so these lying sacks of bull dung doubled their figures on the most factual piece of data in their equation.

Nothing else they have to say is worth considering if they will lie about an established fact.

[HotHunt]

And if I were to eat a pile of Twinkies the size of a house, I would overdose on sugar and have pimples pop out all over my face. Horrors!

Who are these so-called scientists who make these outrageous claims, knowing that in a thousand or even a hundred years from now, nobody will be around to hold them accountable? How hard is that? They can spout these outlandish facts and write these laughable studies and smile all the way to the bank with taxpayer-funded grants.

Time to continue to ignore their crap like I have always done.

[TigersEye]

All of the Fuel at once.....how do we do that?

I have a plan. Nuke it from orbit!

We build super bunker buster nuclear bombs and hit every oil, gas and coal deposit simultaneously. After the 90k year glacial period that causes ends the planetary warming will be unbearable! Because we'll all be used to freezing our nuts off in mile high ice.

[metmom]

Has that pile of snow in Buffalo NY melted yet?

When that goes, then they can think about getting back to me about a mile think slab of ice that is in dark and below zero for 6 months out of the year, minimum.

[metmom]

Average Temperature of Antarctica

http://traveltips.usatoday.com/average-temperature-antarctica-13726.html

Record high is 63.5

Record low is -135.8

It’ll be a puddle before you know it.

[Lurkinanloomin]

This insanity is based on a stupid premise.
Why would we want to burn hundreds of years of fuel up right now?

[Pollster1]

Proven coal reserves worldwide: 909,000,000,000 tons.
Proven oil reserves worldwide: 1,482,000,000,000 barrels.

That’s 4500 tons of coal and 7,000 barrels of oil per square mile on the surface of the earth. I’m not surprised that burning that much stuff would warm things up. These scientists must be proud of themselves for concluding that fire is hot.