[Mouton]

I will go with an exacta box: Materiality, Maajtebe( Irish bred) and the Pharro. I will be surprised if it is not pretty close between Materiality an AP at the finish. Cannot throw out the other horse as it has taken in 1.5 million over its career. Each of these can carry the weight over distance too. AP has not been pushed yet, so unless he comes up sluggish or goes to sleep on the lead, he really should win but there is always racing luck and the horse has raced 3 times in five weeks albeit relatively easy.

Front runners seem to do well in this race, they set the tone and even with the length and a short field, some behind can still get in trouble. That said, Canonario II looked like a winner too but was destroyed by the late running Pass Catcher at 20-1 so it can happen.

[ETL]

Very odd first couple of races for AP. He gets soundly beaten in his first race (a maiden race, race for non-winners), by just over 9 lengths, then they enter him in a Grade 1 (major) stakes race and he runs away with it!

[ETL]

Front runners seem to do well in this race

That is what I pointed out with evidence in my post #4.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3297626/posts?page=4#4