Yeah, but they gotta roll the sucker out regardless. They're losing ground to Mac and Linux, they've got a ton of people who love Win7 and don't want to change, and there are still just as many people using WinXP as the total combined usage of Win8.0 and 8.1.
Microsoft HAS to get Win10 into the marketplace in time for the fall student season, and the holiday season after that, or they're doomed. Meaning they'll never get our from behind the 8-ball, even with their remaining large marketshare advantage.
So there will be a lot of crashes and losses and weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth. But the migration will happen, and it will eventually succeed.
I agree with everything you said, but would add that I think it’s a BIG mistake for Microsoft to release buggy software that could cause that many problems, as it’s likely to finish them off in the in consumer marketplace.
Windows 8 lost them a BIG chunk of consumer market share as W8 was the final straw for millions who bailed and went to Android, iOS or OS X. A really buggy W10 that cripples or blue screens millions of consumer PC working perfectly well on W7 could be the final straw for a few million more, and I don’t see where Microsoft could recover the consumer marketplace after two major OS disasters in a row.