“Lincoln once said the North must prove that popular government is not an absurdity....”
Yes the whole world was watching. The British gentry Tory elite and a lot of Whigs too were hoping the Union would fail to prove what a folly a representative gov’t on a continental scale was.
1. If the France of Napoleon III had enetered the war on the side of the south (To preserve her Mexican expedition) the South may have won—if the French Navy had broken the blocade the south might have won.
2. If Booth had killed Lincoln in 1863 -—Johnston would not have won re-election, McClellin would have won and made peace with the south.
3. If Jackson had not been killed at Chancelersville —he would have won the Battle of Gettysburg—captured Washington DC, and Lincoln would have been captured and brought to Richmond for terms.
4. If England had joined the south and invaded from Canada. The war would have gone to the south.
5. If the south had freed all of her slaves—drafted them to fight it would have taken away a big part of the Northern rational for the war.