1. If the France of Napoleon III had enetered the war on the side of the south (To preserve her Mexican expedition) the South may have won—if the French Navy had broken the blocade the south might have won.
2. If Booth had killed Lincoln in 1863 -—Johnston would not have won re-election, McClellin would have won and made peace with the south.
3. If Jackson had not been killed at Chancelersville —he would have won the Battle of Gettysburg—captured Washington DC, and Lincoln would have been captured and brought to Richmond for terms.
4. If England had joined the south and invaded from Canada. The war would have gone to the south.
5. If the south had freed all of her slaves—drafted them to fight it would have taken away a big part of the Northern rational for the war.
You have a vivid imagination, I’ll give you that.
6. If Albert Sidney Johnston stayed alive at Shiloh, and wrecked Grant’s army, Grant would have taken the fall and been cashiered as a general.
7. If Jeb Stuart hadn’t lost touch of Lee’s army, and left Lee completely in the dark of Federal whereabouts right before Gettysburg.
8. If the Confederates found a way to evacuate Fort Donelson, instead of having Buckner surrender the WHOLE command, even newly arrived reinforcements.
9. If John Bell Hood capitalized on dividing and destroying
Schofield’s army at Spring Hill, instead of letting the Federals escape unmolested, then Franklin would never have happened.
Johnson was not Vice President in 1863. Hannibal Hamlin was. Hamlin would have probably been elected easily in 1864 because he was very loyal to both Lincoln and the Republicans. Think of the other Johnson in 1964 after Kennedy was assassinated. He was seen as loyal to Kennedy.
Lincoln only chose Johnson (a Democrat) as his VP in 1864 because Johnson was a Southern Unionist (Tennessee). Lincoln was by that point looking to reconcile the sectional differences and looking to the post war period. He thought having a southern VP would help in that effort.
5. If the south had freed all of her slaves—drafted them to fight it would have taken away a big part of the Northern rational for the war.
LOL. It would have taken away 100% of the South's rational for fighting the war.
None of those would have given the South a real chance at victory. The only real chance that the South had was that the North would lose political will and give up the fight. The foreign interventions were unrealistic. France and Britain had no great national interest in supporting the Confederacy. By the 1860’s, slavery was a great moral issue and neither would have wanted to be seen overtly supporting a rebellion whose purpose was the preservation of slavery. Any of the military scenarios you propose would not have overcome the basic advantages the North had. The Civil War was an industrialized war, and the North had almost all of the industrial capability in the US at the time. Further, the North had a tremendous advantage in population.
Just a few further criticisms of your ideas: your number 2 is of course historically inaccurate. In 1863, Andrew Johnson was nothing more than a Senator from Tennessee. Hannibal Hamlin was Lincoln’s VP during his first term. If you have ANY clue what Hamlin would have done upon assuming office, you certainly have a greater knowledge of history than I do. I would suspect, however, that Hamlin likely would have pursued the war in much the same way as Lincoln. Johnson was added to the ticket in 1864 to try to garner support from Southern sympathizers in the North. Johnson was, in fact, a Democrat before becoming Lincoln’s VP. Presumably Hamlin shared more of Lincoln’s basic political philosophy than Johnson did. Further, Congress was much more powerful during the war than it is now. Congress probably would not have allowed Hamlin to alter the war effort too much.
Regarding 5, it’s hard to see how that would have had much effect. How effective a fighting force would slaves have been? Are you really going to fight and sacrifice your life for those who are keeping you in bondage? The slaves were uneducated and illiterate, but they were not stupid. They knew which side of the war matched their interests best, and it obviously was not the Confederacy. It is true that there were a few slaves who supported the Confederacy, but the large majority were obviously not inclined to fight to keep themselves in bondage. Besides, as a desperation measure, the South did in fact try this, with very little effect on the outcome.