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I work in a profession (civil engineering) that seems to be dominated by people who think this "self-driving car" thing is just around the corner (pun intended), and who spend a lot of time incorporating this into their planning processes for highway infrastructure.

I always point out that I took a test drive in one of these things (under a very controlled environment at a test track) more than twenty years ago. The technology was in place to do this all the way back then, but it has never been implemented for the same reason I told the team of design engineers back then that it would never work: It relies too much on technology that is subject to minor failures far too frequently to be considered an "safe" process.

The last time I made this point was at a professional conference where the subject came up. One of the speakers made this impressive presentation about how self-driving vehicles were going to change the world we live in. When the time came for questions and answers, I raised my hand and stood up. My question went something like this:

"Sir, there are five seats up there where panelists have been speaking at various sessions at this conference here today. Those of us in the crowd may have noticed that two of the microphones at those five seats had to be replaced earlier today because they weren't functioning correctly. Now I'll turn to this audience and ask them a simple question: If something as simple as a microphone -- that has been in use for decades -- has a failure rate of 40% right here in this room, does anyone here trust that a "self-driving car" will ever work?"

If something as simple as a microphone — that has been in use for decades — has a failure rate of 40% right here in this room, does anyone here trust that a “self-driving car” will ever work?”

Yes. A car is not a microphone.

When I think of stuff like this, I think of remote control.

Back in the 1960’s, a tv had a barrel tuner. Most remote controls consisted of a hand held “tuning fork” and sound activated controller for a motor to drive the tuner. Although technology was getting better and better, the people then had no idea what infra-red remote control and electronic tuners would do to the whole concept.

When it comes to self driving cars, we are at the “hey, some guy said he can make an electronic tuner” phase.

It’s coming, and the speed at which it comes will shock the hell out of the average person.