The Death Of A Nation: Japanese Births Drop To Lowest Ever, Deaths Hit All Time High

Zero Hedge ^ | 01/03/2015 | Tyler Durden

[SeekAndFind]

Supporters and opponents of Abenomics may debate the metaphorical death of Japanese society as a result of the terminal hyper-Keynesian, hyper-monetarist policies implemented by Abe and Kuroda for the past 2 years until they are blue in the face, but when it comes to the literal death of Japan, there is no debate: as the FT succinctly puts it "deaths outnumbered births in Japan last year by the widest margin on
record, underscoring the scale of the challenge facing the government as
it tries to ensure a dwindling pool of workers can support growing
ranks of pensioners."

Indeed, while Japan may or may not surive the collapse in the Yen, which will send the Nikkei225 soaring although nobody will be able to enjoy this unprecedented paper wealth because nobody can afford to eat, drive or heat their house, and all Japanese companies will be long bankrupt, it now looks almost certain that the death of Japanese society will not be due to a runaway printer, but due to, well, death itself.

As the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare reported earlier this week, while Japan recorded 1.001 million births in 2014, or the lowest number in recorded history, this was offset by 1.27 million deaths: also the highest on record.

It's only downhill from here. More from the FT:

[T]he broader demographic problems remain. Last weekend, as the government fulfilled an election pledge to present an extra spending package, it outlined plans to arrest population falls outside the major cities, challenging local authorities to boost births via support to women aged 20 to 39, the group most critical to rebuilding the population.

 

If the current nationwide fertility rate of 1.4 stays unchanged, a task force warned in November, then Japan’s population of 127m would drop by almost a third by 2060 and by two-thirds by 2110.

 

Even if the fertility rate were to rapidly rise to the replacement level of 2.07 by 2030 and then stay there, the population would keep falling for another 50 years before stabilising at a little less than 100m.

 

Relaxing the nation’s relatively strict controls on immigration could provide some relief, but Mr Abe has made it clear that he is “flatly opposed to opening the door”, said Masatoshi Kikuchi, a strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

Not surprisingly, the finance ministry declined to comment on the reported figures, ahead of the release of the draft budget around the middle of January.

Because what is there to comment? The data says it all.

 

And whatever you do, don't use the Birinyni extrapolation ruler here.

Source

[ifinnegan]

I began reading this, read the absurd hyperbole and immediately thought, this must be that Zero Hedge crap.

I scrolled and a indeed it is.

[rbg81]

Japan could probably use a few less people. What they don’t need is unrestricted immigration to “fix” the problem.

[MCH]

So breeding ad infinitum is "life?" Logic says eventually that has to stop, or each human on that relatively small island will have about 6 square feet of living space to themselves. Population growth = economic growth is an eventual failed policy.

Maybe they have enough people already and need to reach an optimal level before having a chance to stabilize their economy? Just as long as they're not letting in droves of third worlders that breed like rabbits and live off of the welfare state.

[Jim Noble]

Dai Nippon Teikoku died September 2, 1945.

This is just the aftermath.

[Thorliveshere]

Here’s the plan.... we move to Japan and conservatives take over....

[M Kehoe]

Somebody has to quit watching porn, and go and get some...

Imho of course...

5.56mm

[Forward the Light Brigade]

Way its going—they will become a part of the Chinese Han Empire in the future—as they were in the past.

[UnwashedPeasant]

They can build a eugenics factory.

The factory children can be raised by robots that look like Hello Kitty.

[Mrs. Don-o]

It's not just numbers, it's the demographic profile. Japan;s is top-heavy with elders, an inverted mountain with dwindling numbers of young people at the bottom to participate in the workforce and bear the burdens of the old, which is one reason why they don't want to take on the added burden of supporting their own next (replacement) generation.

Hence more burdens on young workers, less and less babies, and when those young workers reach their own old age --- nada. Bupkis. It'll all go to the Robots and, maybe, the Muslims (once they claw their way up through the Philippines.)

Anyone wonder why robots are being developed for, especially, geriatric care?

[rbg81]

Kind of doubt it. Japan could probably have nukes in the blink of an eye.

[Reaganez]

Population implosion is the ultimated failed policy.

It not just the number of people but age distribution of the population.

The Japanese are known for changing policy radically on a dime once society can see current policy is a failure.

It will take some very illiberal policies to reverse Japan’s fertility rate.

[blam]

"Way its going—they will become a part of the Chinese Han Empire in the future—as they were in the past."

The Samurai And The Ainu

Findings by American anthropologist C. Loring Brace, University of Michigan, will surely be controversial in race conscious Japan. The eye of the predicted storm will be the Ainu, a "racially different" group of some 18,000 people now living on the northern island of Hokkaido. Pure-blooded Ainu are easy to spot: they have lighter skin, more body hair, and higher-bridged noses than most Japanese. Most Japanese tend to look down on the Ainu.

Brace has studied the skeletons of about 1,100 Japanese, Ainu, and other Asian ethnic groups and has concluded that the revered samurai of Japan are actually descendants of the Ainu, not of the Yayoi from whom most modern Japanese are descended. In fact, Brace threw more fuel on the fire with:

"Dr. Brace said this interpretation also explains why the facial features of the Japanese ruling class are so often unlike those of typical modern Japanese. The Ainu-related samurai achieved such power and prestige in medieval Japan that they intermarried with royality and nobility, passing on Jomon-Ainu blood in the upper classes, while other Japanese were primarily descended from the Yoyoi." The reactions of Japanese scientists have been muted so. One Japanese anthropologist did say to Brace," I hope you are wrong."

The Ainu and their origin have always been rather mysterious, with some people claiming that the Ainu are really Caucasian or proto-Caucasian - in other words, "white." At present, Brace's study denies this interpretation.

The oldest pottery ever found was made by the Jomon of Japan, the ancestors of the Ainu.

[Hawthorn]

>> this must be that Zero Hedge crap <<

I’ve never bothered to read Durden’s writings. The headlines and extracts on FR always seemed so nutty that he wasn’t worth my time.

Moreover, my impression of his nuttiness was definitely reinforced a few minutes ago when I saw the phrase “hyper-Keynesian, hyper-monetarist policies” in the extract for this thread.

That phrase is an oxymoron if ever there was one, a total contradiction in terms, because a policy simply can’t be “hyper-Keynesian” and “hyper-monetarist” at the same time. It’s either one or the other.

Still, in spite of the fact that Durden has a serious lack of understanding about certain economic matters, there does appear to be a looming “demographic disaster” for Japan. Even worse, the same demographic trends seem to be emerging in the USA, with marriage and birth rates now at an all-time low. I guess I’m glad that I won’t be around in the year 2115 to witness the decline and eventual collapse of our once-great nation.

[Vince Ferrer]

Way its going—they will become a part of the Chinese Han Empire in the future—as they were in the past.

China is not that far behind Japan actually. In fact, Japan is just ahead of the curve for almost all developed nations.

[headsonpikes]

T.S. Eliot’s “This is the way the world ends...” made flesh, so to speak.

[PGR88]

What they don’t need is unrestricted immigration to “fix” the problem.

Its odd how every commentator I read elsewhere, from left to right, all throw out the cliche that Japan is in decline (or will decline further) because it does not accept immigration. The Japanese are a very homogenous people. They smartly understand - if they brought in Africans or Pakistanis, they would immediately create an underclass that would NEVER become Japanese, would be constant outsiders, and would be a source of constant friction with the majority Japanese. Even in its so-called "decline" Japan will remain a stable, peaceful nation with a high-standard of living, because it has a common culture which will keep it that way.

[GeronL]

They should abandon Tokyo and start going back to farming.

[PGR88]

a policy simply can’t be “hyper-Keynesian” and “hyper-monetarist” at the same time.

Actually, the USA is both now. Large budget deficits with highly interventionist Fed monetary policy. Beyond that though - what Zero Hedge refers to are those of the central planning mentality. That government or its related organs can manipulate people and the economy to perform how it feels necessary. Some do it through fiscal policy, others try to do it through monetary policy. Either way, the attitude is the same.

[PGR88]

The Japanese nation will be around long after America has disappeared.