Nope.
It really is OPEC keeping the price per barrel down. They've got enough riches, oil reserves, infrastructure, and staying power, to outlast a staring contest with the fracking boom in the West.
The OPEC nations need us as customers. They would rather lose billions of petro-dollars in the short term, and have us cave into them in the long term. It's why they're willing to drive the price of crude oil so low, that it will be more feasible for us to buy from them, rather than drill our own oil.
It's a matter of control and power.
Agreed on this.
The OPEC nations need us as customers.
Agreed on this.
OPEC wants customers, seems to be content to preserve the current order.
Russia wants to rule the world and sees a historic opportunity.
Oil markets (as are all markets) are a huge machine with many moving parts and bells and whistles. Its rare to impossible to point at any one factor and say, this is what is controlling the machine.
At best, one can say that one particular factor outweighs the others at some particular point in time.
So, no, it's not always about demand...and, no, it's not always about supply. Especially not in a season where a cartel has effectively lost the ability for control price.
Demand is not increasing as fast as the recent past. Supply is growing by leaps and bounds. The OPEC swing producer cannot adjust production enough to stop the tide.