This information was a guess several weeks ago, but it is now outdated.
I have been tracking the exponential growth of Ebola in the three most heavily affected West African nations. As of December 12, 2014, the total number of cases was 18,188 with a total death toll of 6,583. The number of new cases per day (as of today) is averaging about 160.
If the outbreak continues on its present course, the total number of Ebola cases will cross 100,000 in approximately June of 2015. The daily multiplier growth rate computed based on the last 30 days of WHO data is approximately 1.00876. That is, take the total number of cases each day and multiply by 1.00876 to get the total number of cases for the next day.
The Ebola outbreak is NOT slowing. It is relentless. It is just slower than the original projections predicted.
The combined population of the three West African nations is about 22 million. That means that less than one in one thousand in those nations have contracted the disease. However, that is NOT good news. It simply means that there remains a huge population yet to be infected with nothing standing in the way of their becoming infected.
I fully expect the Ebola numbers growth to continue unabated through at least ten percent of the population. That means approximately two million cases by the summer of 2016.
Do you think there are cases here that are being kept under wraps?
Why do you believe any number they are giving you at this point? The death rate is 84%. Unless there has been a huge jump in the last week of new cases, say 10,000, you know the death number is bogus.....so why are we being told the truth on the number of total cases.
I think it is long past time to not take the reported numbers seriously.
With the way they are playing with the reported numbers, we do not know if that is even true.
I have two questions. 1. How long is it between Ebola first being introduced into a population and it becoming a general health threat? 2. Is there a “critical mass” of exposure that makes its spread more likely in that new location?
And keep in mind that these numbers are generally acknowledged to 3 or 4 times lower than the actual numbers. But you are completely right. Nothing is stopping Ebola as of yet. It's expanding at about the same rate as always. The ONLY thing different is the reporting...or lack of same....from American media.