They gotta beat them Seahawks or hope the Rams beat the Hawks in Week 17 to win the division. Yes?
I would question that there is a 63% chance that will happen. But I hope so!!
Go ‘Hawks, baby!
THAT site assumes every game is 50/50 ... except home team has advantage ... so they assume AZ has better than 50% to beat SEAHawks.
there is no site that I know that does it right.
SEA is 7pt favorite.
the “moneyline” on SEA vs AZ game:
AZ has about 80% chance to win.
http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/odds
380/480 = ~ 80%
so you are correct that the numbers at playoffstatus.com do not reflect reality. AZ is the home team, so Az is a slight favorite to win per playoffstatus.com, as are all home teams.
my calculation on AZ to win DIV:
80% x 90% = 72%.
they must win vs AZ (80%) and also
avoid losing ground in week 17 (avoid both SEA loss and AZ win):
1- (15% SEA loss x 65% AZ win ) = 1 - 10% = 90%