if CONF is tie, it goes next to COMMON
DAL vs GB, common:
PH NO SEA CHI are the common opponents
GB is 3-2
DAL is 3-1 with PH remaining.
If DAL loses to PHIL it also hurts their chance vs GB ... almost clinches tiebreaker for GB. GB has big lead in SOV over DAL.
MIA vs PITT, common games
BALT KC NYJ JAX are the common opponents
MIA 2-1 with 2 to play (BALT NYJ)
PIT 2-2 with 1 to play (KC)
MIA has an advantage there and looks a good bet over PITT.
PITT has a bit of an advantage in SOV, so MIA better beat BAL and, by doing so, get common over PITT
MIA did lose head to head vs KC, which is a problem for them.