http://www.dw.de/virologist-fight-against-ebola-in-sierra-leone-and-liberia-is-lost/a-17915090
[snip]
“The right time to get this epidemic under control in these countries has been missed,” he said. That time was May and June. “Now it is too late.”
Schmidt-Chanasit expects the virus will “burn itself out” in this part of the world.
With other words: It will more or less infect everybody and half of the population - in total about five million people - could die.
I found the counter-arguments interesting. No one who disagreed with the analysis said it is wrong. Instead they complained that the analysis wasn’t “helpful” and could lead to “hopelessness.”
Regardless of the help and hope aspects, the virologist is probably correct regarding the future course of the disease in currently infected areas. He was absolutely correct that limiting the virus to those areas already infected is priority one—and the same priority the UN/WHO/CDC/AU/etc. is refusing to even discuss.
This thing is going to become so terrible I won’t have words to describe it.
It’s more than that. The 50% CFR is misleading for a variety of reasons. The BEST shot at surviving is having an IV and access to the BP meds and other stuff. If that many people are sick at once it will be unlikely that most of them even get bottled (clean) water. So the CFR in such a situation is likely to be close to the 90% expected from Zebola.
So, add about 4m people to make 9m dead.
That’s a crazy number. Horrific. Unbelieveable. Let’s all pray it’s just wrong.