Posted on 08/10/2014 12:46:23 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe
“Sierra Leone lockdown will not help halt Ebola: MSF”
http://rt.com/news/187396-ebola-control-crisis-healthcare/
“Stark warning: WHO says Ebola epidemic out of control, death toll over 2,400”
ASU confirms an R0 of between 1.4 and 1.7.
They are actually more liberal than I am at this point. I have it at a 1.5 to 1.6 at this point based on the official numbers.
And no I.
That means Interventions.
It’s going to be interesting.
I thought you’d like that paper.
“Ebola case count could rise to between 77,000 and 277,000 by year’s end”
Worse case scenario...
“Ebola: Fashola says schools in Lagos may not resume September 22, gets WHO commendation”
They keep upping it and upping it.
Hopefully they’ll get it under control before it surpasses even those numbers.
I did. Huge.
FR is an amazing place. Think of the cash spent on the combined government resources arrayed against something like this, and between a few of us, we zeroed an R0 before they did. Perhaps we sussed it before they were ready to announce it.
Even the release ASU put out buried the lead. They never once referred to the reproductive rate as R0.
“Lakeland stands ready to join the fight against the spread of Ebola,” said Christopher J. Ryan, President and Chief Executive Officer of Lakeland Industries. “We understand the difficulty of getting appropriate products through a procurement system that in times of crisis favors availability over specification, and we hope our added capacity will help alleviate that problem. With the U.S. State Department alone putting out a bid for 160,000 suits, we encourage all protective apparel companies to increase their manufacturing capacity for sealed seam garments so that our industry can do its part in addressing this threat to global health.
Just had a disturbing thought. Suppose it gets loose in some crowded hellhole prison in one of those countries. I can’t imagine anyone sticking around to keep the prisoners confined.
You should watch The Stand.
All sorts of things will be falling apart.
100,000 open cases by Jan 1, 2015. From there, the abyss.
Hopefully...
But I am not so sure anymore.
“How Do You Catch Ebola: By Air, Sweat Or Water?”
The stats from Sept. 7 to Sept. 10 show a rise in Ebola cases at about 165 per day and deaths of about 70 per day. Keep in mind that these stats are probably underreported by a factor of at least 4 so it is more like 600 new cases per day and almost 300 deaths per day. The underreporting is getting more severe as their health systems continue to breakdown and turn away even more patients.
Heartbreaking.
I fear I agree with the virologist who stated that in West AFrica at least, in those 3 countries, it will likely just burn through the population until it’s done.
Later in the article, the same MSF says:"It has been our experience that lockdowns and quarantines do not help control Ebola as they end up driving people underground and jeopardizing the trust between people and health providers," said the group.
"This leads to the concealment of potential cases and ends up spreading the disease further," added the group which has been helping fight the world's biggest outbreak of the disease across West Africa.
But MSF said door-to-door screening required a high level of expertise and, even when cases were found, there were a lack of treatment centers and other facilities to take them to.
MSF reiterated its calls for nations with civilian and military biological-disaster response capacities to send equipment and teams to West Africa
So, quarantining people in their homes won't help because people won't go to the hospital, yet if they go to the hospital--and spread contagion as they travel--the hospital will refuse them entry because there is no more space.
Makes absolutely no sense. Since there is no more space in medical centers, the best option is to keep people in their homes, out of public areas and gatherings where the virus may be spread.
I want to maintain some respect for MSF, they are trying and have been since the beginning, but in every interview I read based on their comments they repeatedly contradict themselves.
As for letting them take command of our military and service members' health and welfare, forget it. MSF either hasn't done a great job of protecting their people or are being dishonest about the nature of this specific virus. MSF has always despised our military and I doubt their care and concern for our military men and women will be as serious as their care and concern for their own.
As for countries sending personnel, I doubt there will be a queue of physicians and nurses beating the doors down to purchase plane tickets. Medical personnel know something is very different about this virus, something that results in skilled, experienced people dying of Ebola despite using all recommended PPE. I hardly blame them for refusing to offer themselves up for pain and death, particularly when the authorities are more concerned about political correctness and economics than individuals' lives.
I’m afraid you are correct on that. I guess Denial is not a river in Egypt. The only way I see that they can contain this is by quarentine and lock down of borders.
There are ways of setting up staging areas for delivery of items without exposing the delivery people, I’m sure. Otherwise no travel in or out. It’s the Eyam solution. Very sad.
If they don’t want every person on the continent and many elsewhere to become infected, they need to seal the borders and set up adequate protocols for delivery of medical supplies. At some point, there’s just too much exposure for any amount of medical people to handle.
I’m afraid that point has already been reached. You could not pay me enough to step one foot in that country without being in a space suit hooked to an oxygen tank for the whole time.
That makes two of us.
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