Bay
Do you think Contador has a chance to pull off the win?
Drugador lost one of his best team-mates who crashed out of the TDF
My first take is that he could because of his climbing ability. But he's 2:57 down and it takes a big breakaway day to bridge a gap like that. This puts Contador in deficit because regardless of how well he is protected, Nibali's mates just have to keep him from being dropped completely.
There have been a few people with the ability to take a mountain flier and grab three minutes or more. Richard Verenque, Marco Pantani and Lance when he was fueled had that ability. I don't know if Contador does unless someone comes out of the pack to push him on a break.
Froome is gone, Schleck is gone, Wiggins isn't there, so I don't know who that might be. Maybe Richie Porte if he recovers from all his bruises.
Talansky, Van Garderen, ValVerde and Costa are strong climbers within a couple of minutes and they will be watched closely, so one of them getting away is unlikely. But, if they make a move it could break things up, especially if it happens on the first or second stage because a big effort to keep the leaders in touch can weaken their teams for the next day.
One wild card is that if someone can take time out of Nibali in the mountains it could mean trouble for him because of the 30 mile TT at the end which is his weakest point.
I love watching a stage race play out, don't you?