I didn't know his real name. Thanks.
That video's data charts are
here.
" The Earth is expected to encounter a great numbet of the comet 209P trails in 2014.
The main source of activity should become 1898-1919 trails,however some meteors could be produced by the earlier trails of the comet, down to 1763 trail,which is the oldest computed trail, and even earlier.
The computed time of maximum acitivity is May 24, 2014, at 7:21 UT, theoretical radiant is RA=122.8�, Dec=+79.0�.
It is difficult to estimate expected intensity of the outburst due to the lack of past observed cases of activity from the given comet meteor shower,as well as due to very small size of the comet itself
and unknown level of its past activity.
However, considering high computed density and high number of encountered trails,we can very approximately estimate ZHRex as 100 meteors.
Its a very cautious estimation, and it is very possible that real acitivity will turn to be much higher. Storm levels are also far from being excluded. "
Reference your comment:
"On May 29, 2014, the comet will pass 0.0554 AU (8,290,000 km; 5,150,000 mi) from the Earth ..."
John Bochanski's article from November 12, 2013 stated;
" Detailed calculations of its orbit indicated that in May 2014 the comets debris trails would pass extremely close to Earth(about 0.0002 Earth-Sun distances, ...). "
I'll assume that he was talking about
the center of the Comet 209/Linear's core's path.
I run the math on that and
IF an astronomical unit is defined as the average distance from the Sun to the Earth, or about 93 million miles (150 million kilometers),THEN 0.0002 AU is about 18,600 miles.
That 's a lot closer than 5,150,000 miles from Earth.
Also, it's not the closeness to Earth itself, but
the closeness to Earth's
orbital plane within just a few days.
What we NEED TO KNOW ~ IS :the distance Comet 209P/Linear will be from Earth's Orbital Plane on May 19-20, 2014,as it goes from above-to-below Earth's Orbital Plane.