AFC TIEBREAKER #4 OF MANY
TENN is less interesting at this point, because most assume a loss to DEN this week and that is a CONF loss (near fatal in the wildcard race).
we did TN vs. BALT above
TN vs. PT BUFF all have 2 non-conf losses, SD has only 1. MIA has adv over TN with 3 of their losses being non-conf, and TN has h2h over PITT & SD and nYJ
this weekend will clarify the TN SD MI PT situation. Because there will be losses for some of the 4.
TN vs. MIA, common
TN is 3-2
MIA is 3-0 with 2 to play (PT & NYJ)
TN vs. BUFF, common
TN is 2-2
BUFF is 1-3 BOTH with 1 to play (JAX for both)
THE 3-WAY TIE TN-BA-MI with equal CONF REC .... ?
balt vs mia common
balt: 4-3-2
mia: 3-2-4 all 9 games are NORTH & EAST
It is not clear how a “3-way common games” works. It might just go to SOV.
http://files.nfl-forecast.com/
site with playoff chances for each team, based on Monte Carlo, etc. Takes into account ability of each team and strength of schedule for remaining 4 games.
Seem to consider PHILLY to be stronger team than DALLAS .... or perhaps remaining schedule favors PHILLY (if DAL @ WASH is tough game?). Results unexpected.
MIA has softer schedule than BALT (very tough) ... would get interesting for a bunch of teams if MIAMI stumbles.
UPDATE!!!
AFC TIEBREAKERS #5 OF MANY
PITT HAS CLINCHED TIBREAKER OVER BALT
... (because if BALT TIES DIV REC, PITT HAS CLINCHED COMMON OVER BALT)
BALT has clinched tiebreaker over CINN
... (if BALT wins in week 17, to tie, BALT gets the tiebreaker due to head to head sweep.)
MIA has clinched 2-way tiebreaker over TENN
... TN vs. MIA, common. MIA clinched.
TN is 3-2
MIA is 4-0 with 1 to play
SD will lose all 2-way, 3-way, 4-way tiebreakers with MIA TENN & BALT (conf record, h2h). SD leads over NYJ
NYJ Has clinched common over MIAMI and therefore,
NYJ has clinched tiebreaker over MIAMI (with h2h win on 12/29)
BALT PT TENN have all clinched tiebreaker over NYJ