Posted on 11/05/2012 6:08:44 AM PST by George N
At the risk of being an "Eeyore" and called a troll I think a lot of the tooth mashing over the Dem leaning polling samples is off. I hope I'm wrong but I think the outrage is mostly a result of a lack of technical understanding. It's always dangerous when amateur analysts start tearing into poll internals. This year it seems like laymen want to start weighting polls at their own whim. There's a reason pollsters historicLly do not weight by party ID.
That doesn't mean that Dems will outperform or even match 2008 turnout. They won't. But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year. You'll notice that in most polls where Romney leads big amongst indies the party ID gap is the most favorable for Dems. When the indie vote is closer the party ID is tighter. Again, when GOP leaning indies call themselves Republicans they tighten party ID. When they call thenselves indies Romney wins indies bi but suffers in party ID.
I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year. Bu it doesn't change he sxientific math. Pollsters know with fair certainty what the sex/age/racial composition of the electorate will be. So when you weight that way and get a scientifically representative sample the top line number will be right. At least with the 95% lvl of confidence.
This isn't to say a massive GOP turnout couldn't fly under theradar or that pollsters don't struggle with urnout models and intensity. This is gonna be a close election but the polls point to a soight Obama edge. Let's not fool ourselves. We need an upset.
PPP blamed “ We underestimated the amount of voter anger out there” for it’s missed call in Wisconsin.
How do they now justify being wrong, after a +8 Dem Sample last night?
Thanks for posting that. I’m a nervous wreck. That gave me some comic relief.
When you look at the poll numbers by STATE, the there is a consistent swing of 10-14% toward Romney from ‘08 results EXCEPT IN OHIO. The. vote is 10% more Republican this year, Romney wins Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Colorado. Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania are within 1.5%. If Romney, stretches the swing to 12%, he wins all three of those. Even Rasmussen shows today that Blacks are disproportionately higher percentage of early voters. And Romney has held serve with the early vote.
Voter ID in polling is not as important as the result shown and how it corresponds to the national trend. If you want to know what Ohio is going to do, look at Florida. Those two states usually finish within 2% of each other, and with a 5% lead in FL, there is no way Romney loses OH.
You are exactly right. We cannot afford to simply dismiss polls we don't like as biased or inaccurate, label anyone who expresses concern about the election as a troll, then sit back and expect everything to be just fine tomorrow. We need to assume this is going to be a close race, get out there and vote, and convince as many of our friends and neighbors as possible to vote. We cannot take anything for granted. Turnout is key.
“But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year.”
Repubs have not dropped the party to become indy’s like your theory suggests. That may have been the case back in ‘08 but, the GOP has a party ID edge this year, hence all of the legitimate gripes by GOP’ers. gallup shows more people identifying as Repubs than Dems (you have to scroll to the bottome). So polls that produce D+10 samples are wildly innacurate.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx
I read an article last night that almost verbatim made the point you made but it was written back in september before the new party ID demographics had come out. It maybe made sense back then but not with what we know now
I resist posting negative things because no one can handle it. Sadly the crowd sizes don’t tell the whole story. I’ve attended huge rallies with wildly enthusiastic crowds for example for W, and he lost the state.
We like to forget on here that unfortunately there are huge masses of Americans who line up to vote dem no questions asked, or who are enthusiastic for Obama. This is the demographic revolution he is bringing about. This is why Romney isn’t ten points ahead. And we all have relatives who keep defending Obama and it’s maddening because he doesn’t deserve it.
If Obama wins I liken it to the outrage and tragedy of Clinton’s reelection and sadly I know it can happen.
Still, my prediction is a close to comfortable Romney win. Comfortable if places like Michigan, Minn, PA really are in play. If close, watch for the hispanic vote in places like Nevada, Ohio, etc. To screw us.
Thanks for that!
Do you mean “amateur analysts” such as Dick Morris who has been predicting a Romney landslide because of consistent Democrat oversampling skewing the results. Last night on FOX he claimed to have been working “professionally” as a political consultant for several decades.
Here since 2007 and this is only your 2nd post? I’m beginning to smell the ozone coming in on the wind. I suggest you get your flame retardant jeans washed, as this could be a warm day for you (as long as it lasts...)
Oh, and Arcy, here’s a way to get more bandwidth...
IATZ
Dems are NOT more motivated. I have personally talked to a number of Obama’s vaunted college-age kiddies who tell me they are disgusted and are not going to bother voting (and I’m stunned Barry has not promised to forgive their loans in order to motivate them)
We on the other hand are on the verge of Chick-Fil-A 2.0
OK. I am willing to listen. What are your professional qualifications? I have to say I would have a hard time believing they include written presentations on this subject because the spelling and composition of your post is atrocious.
Mmmmmmm your tears taste so good. So yummy in my stomach. Mmmmmmmmmmm
“But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year.”
Yep, everyone knows GOP voters are moving to Indy....except it isn’t true.
Rasmussen has a decade’s worth of party id polling. Indies are going up...but so are GOP. Who is going down? Rats.
So right out of the gate, your novice analysis is flawed and backwards.
Wish I had taken a picture of the deer carcass I saw on I-81 this morning ...
It was spectacular ... we could use it for folks like the late unlamented "GeorgeN".
If the polls are conducted without bias then on average, this leaning would not be uniform across the board for different polls and for the same poll over time.
The problem with the results of these polls is they are indicating that the samples being used are not random because they are not ending up reflecting the population on a number of known demographics including party identification.
The best explanation I have seen is the heavier weighting of cell phone calls. I believe these are skewing the sample by picking up more democratic/liberal voters and the effect that the participants are more likely to not be alone and its affecting their answers.
If this is the explanation then I doubt it is being done by accident.
Bingo.
And that is one of the problem with most of the polls today: they simply assume an electoral turnout either identical to that of 2008 or, in numerous cases, one in which Democrats turn out in even greater numbers this year than four years ago (e.g. - CNN's last poll: D+11)
There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that any such thing will happen this year, and in fact: there is a great deal of evidence pointing to a contrary result.
In 2008, the same polls also oversampled Democrats relative to Republicans. But that year, Democrats actually turned out in record numbers for Obama, and a statistically significant number of Republicans crossed over to vote for him as well.
Neither of those things is happening this year. I know this to be true because (a) I am working on the campaign and have access to internal polling that validates my conclusions; (b) I have studied statistical polling methodology for over 30 years, and wrote my graduate thesis on the subject; (c) broader demographic studies this year have displayed a far more powerful move of registered voters away from Democrats than away from Republicans (and toward independents); and finally (d) Romney's lead among those independents is both nationwide in scope and insurmountable.
So relax, folks. Pray (it helps). And VOTE!!!!!
His post is just stupid. The over sampling in these polls assumes a dem turnout similar to 2012 which was historic (as in out of the ordinary). It also ignores an energized republican base AND a huge swing of independents away from Obama or towards Romney. A reasonable assessment of the numbers is... well... reasonable. I’m watching some (many?) conservatives gnash their teeth because they accept the liberal polls at face value without doing any critical thinking of their own. What’s even more interesting is when conservatives read solid analysis and dismiss it choosing instead to embrace their irrational fear with no rational reason to ignore/reject the analysis. This poster was a troll and your concern is duly noted and telling.
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