Posted on 11/05/2012 6:08:44 AM PST by George N
At the risk of being an "Eeyore" and called a troll I think a lot of the tooth mashing over the Dem leaning polling samples is off. I hope I'm wrong but I think the outrage is mostly a result of a lack of technical understanding. It's always dangerous when amateur analysts start tearing into poll internals. This year it seems like laymen want to start weighting polls at their own whim. There's a reason pollsters historicLly do not weight by party ID.
That doesn't mean that Dems will outperform or even match 2008 turnout. They won't. But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year. You'll notice that in most polls where Romney leads big amongst indies the party ID gap is the most favorable for Dems. When the indie vote is closer the party ID is tighter. Again, when GOP leaning indies call themselves Republicans they tighten party ID. When they call thenselves indies Romney wins indies bi but suffers in party ID.
I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year. Bu it doesn't change he sxientific math. Pollsters know with fair certainty what the sex/age/racial composition of the electorate will be. So when you weight that way and get a scientifically representative sample the top line number will be right. At least with the 95% lvl of confidence.
This isn't to say a massive GOP turnout couldn't fly under theradar or that pollsters don't struggle with urnout models and intensity. This is gonna be a close election but the polls point to a soight Obama edge. Let's not fool ourselves. We need an upset.
“...teeth mashing...”
I think you mean “teeth gnashing”...
Product of the govt school system.
Pennsylvania and Ohio
posting dem talking point BS is the reason FR is moving slow.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/dem-registration-down-in-key-states-132150.html
No, Gallup and Rasmussen are two pollsters who do extensive polling on party ID.
Most of the other polls do their polling and then weight the results based upon their assumptions as to the party ratio of those who will actually vote.
It is that latter group that is coming up with the big Democrat advantage—because they are putting it there.
Gallup, which does the biggest polling on party ID has reported a major swing to the GOP.
Folks I’m sure we can debate polls forever. The poster gave us some info. The fact is we can win this election in part because many pollsters have Romney leading or tied. But some on here attacking every negative poll are being pollyannas as well.
I saw a Prius in Minneapolis yesterday with a Romney/Ryan bumper sticker. That was a good omen for what’s coming tomorrow, that and Ryan drawing an overflow crowd of 10,000 at the MSP airport yesterday.
Bye-bye Barry!
I'll go with Michael Barone. He knows what he's talking about, and you don't. If the polls were right in an election like this we'd be talking about things like Carter's disastrous second term and President Kerry.
The only poll that doesn't care about party affiliation had Romney up by 5 or six before they suspended polling. We'll know for sure tomorrow. See ya in two years.
my thoughts exactly.
The ONLY way Obama wins is if there is an over the top to to point of becoming obvious voter fraud.
Repubs have to always win by 5%. Figure 2-3% fraud then enough to not force a recount - of which the Communists will win (always) by finding votes in the trunk of a 51’ Ford located in some barn out in the country somewhere.
>> Jim Cramer’s seriously suggesting Obama will pick up Georgia, Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina.
Jim Cramer is one of my favorite prognosticators, because he is *reliably* wrong. You can literally take his predictions to the bank, as long as you invert ‘em first. :-)
Bunk.
So much of our political lives right now are shaped by "gee, what do other people think?" that when Romney wins, it must totally discredit these organizations as being part of the D machine.
- zot this clown please
How many did you poll?
I recall many news articles from just before the 2010 midterm elections, about how the number of registered Democrats was dwindling, some places by as much as 30%, when you factor that with the poll samplings for a 2008 Democrat turn out, and sprinkle in the evangelicals (24 Million) who stayed home in 2008, I have to think another tsunami is in the making.
So off you go now.
I won't call you names for making this kind of ignorant statement.
Whatever you might think of them, Dick Morris and Michael Barone are NOT "laymen". They are professionals, and conducting, analyzing, and critiquing polling is what they do for a living.
So, how about you? What is YOUR professional background in statistics, polling, and political analysis?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like YOU are the layman in the room.
I'll just call you "roadkill" instead.
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