Posted on 11/04/2012 10:56:56 AM PST by Tom Riker
We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1.
30 percent IF its R+1? really? so you basically drop 68 points and a romney win if the only thing changes is O goes from tie turnout to plus r 1?
Pew, Gallup and Rassmussen show turnout at R + 1-3 points...
And if Nate is proved wrong, he will blame the polls. ‘Hey I was just working with what I had and based on that I had a 125% chance of Obama winning’. He gets all the credit for being right and none of the discredit for being wrong.
This information is a huge admission on Nate Silver’s part. Up until now he has used cherry picked polls under the guise that his statistical analysis was sufficient to determine which polls are reliable. His analysis claimed he was smart enough to only rely on those polls which are reliable.
If Silver had been sitting next to me at Game 5 of the NLDS in DC, he would have told me the Nationals had a 96% probability of winning in the top of the fourth. He would have told me the Nationals STILL had an overwhelming edge in the bottom of the ninth with two out and two strikes.
The problem with everyone who takes Silver seriously is that he is merely spouting objective statistics based on polling data that is not validated and can never be, with respect to Tuesday's vote.
If the polls showing Obama winning are right, then Silver is right. If they are wrong, he is still "right". He is not an analyst, and he will be the first to throw the polls under the bus when he is "wrong". Silver's reports are liberal masturbation.
In reality, Nate Silver is probably just some guy who does his “analysis” in between World of Warcraft sessions while living in his mother’s basement.
Just when I thought I was over the game 5 catastrophe...
I apologize. I find that talking about it helps.
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