The rumor I heard is that the MN poll has Obama up by only 47-44. But we can’t just assume that the poll is as left-leaning as the Red Star polls from prior years—Mason-Dixon is polling for the Red Star now. This presidential poll was taken simultaneously with the voter-ID referendum poll (by M-D) released today by the Red Star, which poll shows passage voter D ahead by 53-42.
If Obama truly is up by only 47-44 in MN with a couple of weeks left, then I think that he probably takes the state (plus WI and IA).
Minnesota has plenty of liberal nuts scattered in various parts of the state, but has a better track record than Oregon when it comes to actually electing some decent Governors and U.S. Senators in the last dozen years or so. (I can't think of the last time Oregon had a decent one). I think Reagan would have won Minnesota if he had campaigned there in 1984, but choose not to, out of respect for not embarrassing Mondale. We haven't won either of them in any recent Presidential election, but we've come far closer to taking Minnesota on several occasions. In Oregon, Obama beat McCain by over 16 points in 2008. In Minnesota, Obama still won comfortably but the margin of victory was in single digits.
It really depends on what kind of numbers are happening nationally, but I expect Obama will run at least 3-4% better in Oregon than he's doing in Minnesota. We'll see.
“If Obama truly is up by only 47-44 in MN with a couple of weeks left, then I think that he probably takes the state (plus WI and IA).”
To clarify, I think the MN poll is a sign that Romney will win all three states.