Posted on 10/26/2012 6:11:03 AM PDT by zencycler
Some pundits point to Obama's 49% approval rating as a sign that he may win - that incumbents polling at this level generally win, while those polling at or below 47% just before an election generally lose.
But I've been noticing that Obama seems stuck at 47% in most election polls, and stuck at 49% in most approval polls. So why the discrepancy? I'm wondering if it's the Bradley Effect at play, and if his actual approval numbers are really at 47%.
If so, we'll see some pollsters predicting his win based on a 49% approval the day before the election, and then perhaps coming to the same conclusion the day after.
Why the discrepancy?
There’s always a very small percentage of people whose “logic” doesn’t really make sense.
I can imagine someone who says they “approve” of the President in general terms, but who will vote for Mitt because of one or two policy positions that they prefer.
Obama will be crushed in this election. I have seen 4 or 5 Obama bumper stickers in the past month driving around the North East. This time 4 years ago, it seemed every other car was displaying one. Buh-Bye Telepromter Messiah!
Teleprompter.
In 2008, all I heard about was how Obama would lose because of the Bradley effect and those darn PUMA’s. I doubt there’s much to the theory.
A country where 47% of the inhabitants approve of Obama is probably doomed.
It’s the 47% Mitt Romney spoke of,The zombies who cannot be helped. The living brain dead.
Colon Powell one of the leaders. Well at last he finally leads something instead of being Bush’s show shine boy.
obama’s approval is in reality... around 42%.
LLS
You need to take a basic statistics course. No matter how hard you try, the mechanics of statistical analysis cannot provide support for your supposition. Unless you do a 100% sample, every sample has a margin of error - you fail to account for that basic fact. ‘Indeterminate’ is as close to a valid point as you can get.
47%......oh the irony is delicious....lol!!
My guess the media has created a huge Bradley Effect. We will see election day.
The fact that Obama is at 47% instead of 27% is the “Affirmative Action Effect”
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