Posted on 10/24/2012 8:01:41 PM PDT by CatOwner
Has Romney ever been in the lead in any poll in Ohio? While there are other scenarios for Romney to get to 270 EVs, the fact that he isn't leading in Ohio is disconcerting. Just one (fair) poll showing Romney with a 2-3 point lead in Ohio. Maybe Obama's ground game is too strong in Ohio?
Thanks for posting the link.
From the link:
So where does that leave us? Today, Mitt Romney sits at 48% in the RCP average of polls. Add 2 percent because of sample bias and add another 2 or 3 points for breaking last-minute undecideds, and I expect Mitt Romney to finish with between 52 and 53 percent to Barack Obama’s 46 or 47 percent.
The fundamentals of this race have never been in Barack Obama’s favor. For two years he has underperformed George W. Bush. For more than two years he has trailed in enthusiasm by margins of no better than 3:2. For two years he has had trouble breaking above 50% approval–and those are in polls of registered voters or even all adults. That’s not a good place for an incumbent Democrat to be. 2012 was predestined to be a referendum election, unlike the one Obama won in 2008. If that wasn’t clear enough, especially after a disastrous 2010 mid-term result, Democrats have only themselves (and their media partners) to blame for their delusion.
There were a handful on here who thought McCain was going to win all the way to the bitter end, but it was a very small minority.
The general consensus was that the MSM polls showing Obummer up by double digits were too high, but that he was going to win by a fairly comfortable margin — in other words, exactly what did happen.
Romney is soooo far ahead of where McCain was. He is on the cusp of taking it, just needs one more small bounce to get him over the final hump.
My error. Your numbers are correct.
Just watched Rassmussen explain about Ohio. They are neck and neck there, with Obama having a very small lead. He is pouring ALL his funds there, hoping to keep it. In the meantime, Romney now has a lead that is outside the margin of error in NC, FL, VA, and PA is looking that way, too. Romney is still keeping his eye on Ohio. But if he won PA, it has more EVs than OHIO. CO is now +4 for Romney, according to Rassmussen. He is climbing in nearly all the swing states to numbers that put him above the margin for error. That is good. He could win w/o Ohio. And, who’s to say that he won’t win? Early voting is looking good for him in Ohio. In some counties, the support for Obama is way off this year. So, we keep praying on this one.
I agree.
Philadelphia seems too corrupt, but winning PA would be amazing. Just need to stick through election night as the news media quickly calls most of the NE states for Obama to give him an initial big lead. They might even call California 3 hours before their polls close. ;P
-— just needs one more small bounce to get him over the final hump.——
Benghazi and the mid-Atlantic storm should dominate the news until the election. There’s no daylight left for Zero.
Thanks for sharing that, Shery.
The one thing I will add, is that I see zero chance that Romney takes Pennsylvania without also taking Ohio.
If Romney is moving in to a lead in PA, then that is outstanding news, and suggests a blowout could be coming. Hopefully Ras posts a poll confirming that very soon!
The only two (2) reasons why the polls are being reported as tied or Obama up in Ohio is to keep people like you coming to their propaganda news outlets for ratings and to discourage your vote!
Stop watching and believing them, problem solved!
“Huge” is relative. There were 300,000 more RV in 2008 than 2004, but only 50K more votes. Neither candidate excited Ohioans that hugely, especially not McCain. He got 62K fewer votes than even Kerry pulled in 2004.
Missouri? I hope not, if so, were are in trouble. Truth is, Obama cannot win without Ohio, unless he takes CO, VA or FLA which I don’t see happening at this point.
Romney can take it with MI, PA or WI+IA or WI+NH (or MN with either or WI) or IA+NV+NH if he loses Ohio. Most likely way without OH is WI+NH, problem is Chicago likes to vote in WI as well.
Undecideds will vote for,the perceived winner.. They want to feel good about themselves.
Not all. There were about 20,000 Delphi non-union employees who lost their pensions. They weren't all Ohio workers but enough were that many Ohioans are familiar with that aspect of the bailout even without media coverage.
Everything I see and hear around me makes me believe that Ohio is Romney's to lose.
“I’m not counting my chickens till the fat lady sings.”
Candy Crowley?
I never comment on their post just bash barry, deep down they get upset lol
Agreed.....but now you know what it feels like to live there during election time.... At least you don't have to hear all the ads 24/7.
Believe me, I used to live there and it sucks. (I live in Georgia now)
You will not see a poll published that has Romney leading in Ohio. It’s just not going to happen - everyone in the country is aware of the “As Ohio Goes, the Presidency Goes” statement, and the media will not want that polling information out.
Romney could be winning 55-45 in Ohio election night, but you won’t know it until late. The media will report the democratic districts first, making it seem Obama has a lead.
Now you know how we feel! Especially when we have the media (and those on FR who don’t live anywhere near our state) telling us how we’re going to vote.
Being a SAHM, I have the opportunity to go a lot of places during the day. I hear politics being talked about in a lot of venues you wouldn’t normally hear political discussion. Trust me, if my personal experience in speaking to people and in overheard conversations is any indicator, Obama can start packing now. (Plus the R/R signs outnumbering O signs about 10 to 1 in our area—southeast OH, on the river bordering WV—seems to be a big indicator)
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