Posted on 10/24/2012 8:01:41 PM PDT by CatOwner
Has Romney ever been in the lead in any poll in Ohio? While there are other scenarios for Romney to get to 270 EVs, the fact that he isn't leading in Ohio is disconcerting. Just one (fair) poll showing Romney with a 2-3 point lead in Ohio. Maybe Obama's ground game is too strong in Ohio?
I grew up in the area, WV panhandle. OH will go Romney, all of SE Ohio Applachia, which back then in the 60's were LBJ have become R's, or as Obama calls "bitter clingers".
They will be out in force on November 6, and will outnumber the Cuyhoga county democrats in Cleveland, where are a lot of them are discouraged to vote for the pro gay marriage Obama, thus becoming "bitter clingers" themselves.
I heard Newt Gingrich on the radio today and he said said he was talking with Kasich and that their internal polls in Ohio showed Romney up by 2.
Does that count?
He also said that a couple of weeks ago the same polls had Obammy +4.
I will admit I am concerned as well. Would LOVE to see several public polls showing Romney ahead there. Maybe later in the week.
I know one thing. We take Ohio, and there is ZERO chance Obama holds on for the win.
Trolling a bit much, eh?
Romney will win Ohio by at least by 3% because the main stream pollsters are not using the correct turnout model among other things. And the reason they are doing that is because their little delusional bubble would pop if they were realistic about Ohio.
6 undecided states: OH NH CO IA NV WI
ROMNEY needs
a. OH & NH (or one of the other 4 states instead of NH)
or
b. (CO & WI) & (NH or IA or NV)
or
c. (CO or WI) & (NH & IA & NV)
very tough for either candidate without OH.
Trend is good. Still have 2 weeks. If we aren’t up in the polls by next Friday, then start to have some concern.
Or worse, if it looks like Obama is gaining.
But, don’t see that happening.
It takes time to come back from being down a good 6-8 points.
Yeah, Ohio is a toughy.
I don’t like the spin from either side. I don’t know whether it’s real internal polling or if it’s just political bluster regarding the state from either side.
Wisconsin and Iowa polls make the think Ohio’s in the bag. Pennsylvania polls too. Yet, they could be political static designed to steer public opinion. Don’t know.
I do realize that Ohio generally runs roughly equivalent to the national polls in the end. Raz and Gallup are showing 3-5 points nationally in Romney’s favor. I think Ohio will fall generally in that area. Yet, I wonder about Wisconsin and Iowa who are running more GOP than in previous years. Maybe Ohio for the first time in a while doesn’t mean as much.
Waiting to find out myself....
The part about Ohio that makes me have confidence are the 2008 numbers, where under ideal conditions, Obama only got 51.5 percent of the vote. Obama got much bigger percentages in so many other states he won.
I realize that Mitt’s east coast and wealth may not appeal to Ohioans as much as military vet McCain. But is there really any McCain voter who won’t vote for Romney?
Again the Ohio margin in 2008 was so close. I can’t believe that the good people in the Buckeye State can’t shift 1.5 percent against Barry here in 2012
I live right on the border of pa/oh. all I see is romneyryan. I was not totally in love with mitt and I generally don’t do the abo type of thing but this election is a huge deal. I really hope mitt wins, I think mitt wants to win for the right reasons. I am concerned slightly because every liberal online is bragging like its in the bag,for BO, I can’t do another minute of BO. from my perspective Romney will win big but who knows the white hut is filled with criminals. I just keep praying.
I think this analysis by Democrat Bob Krumm is informative:
http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2445
Sure hope he and Morris are correct.
This poster must assume we have literally have no recall of previous posts ..
Strange
“Nice try.”
I’m serious.
Ohio Ohio Ohio! Enough already! There are ways Romney can win WITHOUT Ohio.
Where are you getting your figures from? Wiki shows Obama / McCain at 51.5%/ 46.9%.
Stay calm.
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=39&f=1&off=0&elect=0
Anyway, you might as well read this, from a post I made in another thread:
What has been ignored in all the discussion about polling is that, historically, the GOP candidate's share of the vote in Ohio correlates very closely with his share of the national vote.
In 2008, McCain earned 46.5% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 47.3%. In 2004, George W. Bush earned 50.7% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 51%. In 2000, George W. Bush earned about 48% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 52%.
You can go back even further, but the results are the same - GOP candidates for President in Ohio tend to equal or overperform their national popular vote percentage. In other words, Ohio tends to vote a couple of points more toward the GOP then the rest of the nation. I feel confident in predicting that if Romney is leading in the national polls on Election Day, he will carry Ohio.
Frankly, I don't know anyone who thought McCain was going to win in 2008.
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