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I think Obama wins by getting some states like GA, NC, SC, AL, MS, AR, TN, VA, LA, and TX. Enough evangelicals are going to sit this one out that they will not be able to cancel the heavy black vote in the South this time. Romney will probably win the traditional battleground states of OH and FL, as well as IN. Romeny will come closer than Bush and McCain, but still lose MI, WI, and PA.

I can’t tell if you’re actally serious. Obama has exactly 0% chance of winning GA, SC, AL, MS, AR, TN, LA, and TX. He lost all of those by significant margins last time and it sure as hell isn’t getting better for him. It is highly like that Obama wins neither NC nor VA as well. NC was won by a hair last time, and four years of a disastrous presidency coupled with the fact that he’s not a novelty any more means he is unlikely to win.

MI will likely remain blue. WI is an unknown and Obama is polling very poorly in PA. Obama is still polling poorly despite being able to campaign unopposed at this point. Also, while the media is incredibly corrupt, it will be difficult to fool people with stories of a rosy or recovering economy when they are living in the real world.

Enough evangelicals are going to sit this one out

Once again this is projecting the beliefs of FR on to the electorate. There simply aren't millions of evangelicals that never vote until they get their perfect social conservative candidate, no matter what people would like to believe.

Any of the southern states you've listed that have gone Republican by large margins for the last zillion elections are going to go Republican; maybe by less of a margin, but it doesn't matter in terms of electoral votes, of course.

In states like AL and MS the decomposing corpse of Nelson Rockefeller would win if he was the candidate against Obama, much less Romney.

The donkeys have already conceded Louisiana before the convention. The Dems have undergone a general collapse in the state with GOP majorities in both houses and with the AJ crossing over last year Republicans hold every state level position except Landrieu’s Senate seat. Interestingly in the primary last week BHO did not win in three parishes and got less than 50% of the vote in a half a dozen more parishes. True the primary was just proforma but the local party infrastructure couldn't or wouldn't assure that the One won every parish in the state primary.

All this is interesting as LA is well over 40% black in population distribution. Low voter turnout has been common in the deep south since Jim Crow laws purged black voters and poll taxes discouraged many poorer whites from participating in what appeared to be an irrelevant process since blacks had been effectively depoliticized. However the Voting Rights Bill of ‘65 has not had the long term effect of bringing really massive black voter turnout. Some of this is a reflexion of the very non political culture of the rural areas or more correctly politics being a semi elite activity involving a narrow slice of the population both black and white. More important for the Dems has been (personal opinion) that the effect of decades of welfare culture produces a profound sense of helplessness and feelings of powerlessness that make it difficult to stir much of the party base. This is a truly interesting area but if you want to see what the effects of powerful paternalistic social regimes are come to Louisiana and view what how America would really look if BHO’s politics succeed.