I’m a “fan” of gold without being religious about it. I sold 1/3rd of my gold at $1750. and don’t plan to ever be all the way out of it. It has come a long way. Although I will buy a few hundred bucks of silver almost any time if I can get a good price relative to spot, I believe gold may have some resting to do. I could see $1350 as an interim low point for gold, but more likely about $1530. I believe that those who are looking to buy should wait to see how gold behaves should it lose $1600.
If you buy the inflation argument, which I do, to some extent but only after some further interim deflation of major assets, I believe stocks are going to be better for pure capital gains. Meaning, they rise, then you sell them. Many investors are not into gold for that activity. Capital gains are not easy to capture in gold, physical gold. Gold is not easy to time selling and buying, and of course the spreads are punitive. Right now, the metals charts look like pure crap. I’d be in no hurry to buy at this exact point. We enter a traditionally weaker time of the year soon and IMO you just wait up to 60-90 days and watch. I have a very low basis in my silver with an average price of about $13 but not so for gold.
I also think that if interest rates rise, gold could be punished. I’m kind of sitting on my hands at this juncture.
I think silver is still a better buy than gold for the time being. But if gold comes down some more... It’ll get back into “buy” territory.
The problem with gold is it is an expensive hobby item (jewelry, coins, etc.). Once all the easily influenced buyers have exhausted their disposable income buying it at its relative tops it has no where to go but down again, until another promotion resumes. As long as women want it in jewelry it should keep pace with inflation but it is not a necessity.