Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats.
and...
But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.
Will this Ron Paul constituency actually show up? Are they being over-sampled?
I also find it hard to believe that Romney is going to do that well in Iowa.
But who am I to argue with polls.
Not good news for Not Romney and Not Ronulan fans...
Romney's ticket to success. Keep that Not Romney vote fractured.
Depressing...
Paul supporters I’ve seen are older (over 40) and are dopers and/or habitual conspiracy theorists. Every candidate, including McCain in ‘08, can get college students to be enthusiastic about them, but those kids don’t matter in the long run. No money and no persistence.
Polls showing Paul winning in Iowa are just discrediting themselves.
One interesting Number is when ask who did you caucus for last time Huck, Thompson, and McCain responce numbers match the numbers they got in 2008, but only 17% says they went for Romney last time (He got 25%), Meaning I think there can be a hidden vote there claiming right now they not going to show up that Romney can/need to reawake in the close days....
Buddy Roemer at 2%.
Who!?!??!
I am behind Newt. He’s not the best for me but I don’t see Michelle pulling it off by the time my state has it’s caucus. If it looks like she can pull it off, I’ll support her in my caucus.
No Mittens. No way..
(go ahead.. tell me I am voting for Obama.. And your a sell out for voting for Romney)
If I have this right, Ann Selzer will do one more poll before the caucus. She’s got a reputation for doing the best pre-caucus polling. Will be interesting to see how her findings compare with those of PPP and Ras.
Wow...I also feel depressed :(
Five candidates relatively tightly bunched in the 20-10% range: Romney, Gingrich, Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum. (I do not count Paul, whose numbers are artificial, or Huntsman, who simply does not connect with voters at all.) Bachmann should be doing better in Iowa. I see her as having the least chance of the five at the nomination. One or both of the Ricks could move up. When we get down to three serious candidates, i.e., when a couple of the lower tier drop out, things will become clearer. Maybe by mid-February we’ll get down to a clear top two, Romney and . . . Perry? If I were placing a bet, I’d say Romney will end up with the nomination.
The effort the Paulywastes put into winning the Iowa caucus for Ron Paul just shows how useless “Iowa first” has become.
I think DEMOCRATS are playing in these numbers!!! (I have heard they can be a part of this.)
Hard to take this seriously , since PPP is owned by the DailyKos founder
Newt's plummet means that one or more of Bachmann, Perry or Santorum will likely pass Gingrich, who will end up 4th or lower.
Newt in 4th in Iowa will just about end it for him, as NH won't be any more hospitable.
Plan now, to latch onto the next RomNOT. Most likely that would be Santorum. At least Santorum, unlike Newt, is an actual conservative, and without the proclivity for mistresses.
Interesting... PPP is predicting 25% of the voters in a CLOSED Republican set of caucuses will be interlopers.
A truther, a bigot and a moonbat is poised to win the IA Caucuses.
If Paul is the nominee, I will never vote for him.
Plain fat-free yogurt would have much more passionate support than Romney.
Ron Paul? WTF? If they think NEWT is unelectable, wait till they get a load of Ron Paul.
PPP is run by The Daily Kooks isn’t it?
They get their marching orders from the Boob Tube. It's all about who spends the most money on flashy TV ads, comes up with the most rhetoric and propaganda, as well as, outright Bull Crap. And the majority of fools in Iowa eat it up and buy it, even if it is with their last dime.
America is pretty much, in the same condition and it is only getting worse. How else can the President call for another mere 1.2 TRILLION Dollars, to add to the 1 Trillion given earlier this year, to raise the Debt Ceiling to 16.5 Trillion, (It was at 14 T. last July) and nobody cares or even notices.
But what is most important it seems, is that Obama hits 50% again, and already has. Everything is peachy keen, fun and wonderful in LA, LA land, where we all hold hands, dance in the sun and sip our “Green” (energy) Tea.
This is just a small taste of what lies ahead in the coming year.
Will the Ron Paul constituency show up? Absolutely.
If you think otherwise than you have never met a Ron Paul supporter.
If Iowa goes looney tunes, they’re done as a credible force in the primaries. It may not matter though, because if romney gets the nomination, the GOP will be sleeping with the Whigs as a party.
Hello it’s all over the Internet
These Paul bots are who are conducting operation chaos in IA !
They want to smear the GOP using this fraud and madman Ronny as the face of the GOP !
The same thing is going on on NH which is a
Open primary were Dems are registering as Indies in Droves !
The Idiots in the GOP leadership is getting Punked and
Outmoved as usual !