2008
Posted on 07/30/2011 1:15:39 PM PDT by Signalman
By Dick Morris And Eileen McGann 07.30.2011
In the parlance of Washington, the Democrats are going to get the upper hand in the final round of the debt debate. Republicans will succeed in making a vast cut in federal spending, unimaginable before the 2010 election and will block any tax increases. Democrats will get an extension of the debt limit until after the election so as to avoid dragging Obama through this process again.
But the damage this debate has inflicted on the Obama Presidency is so deep and profound that it will have played a large part in dooming his re-election chances. The injury to his popularity from the debt debate is far greater than the addition to his popularity he realized after killing bin Laden.
Here’s what will unfold in Washington:
Step One: Reid and McConnell will craft a deal calling for larger so-called budget cuts (they’ll count the fictitious spending cuts achieved by avoiding foreign wars not now contemplated) and they will extend the debt limit until after the election. McConnell will exact some language whereby Obama has to ask for the additional borrowing authority but it will require a two-thirds vote to deny it to him. There will be a bi-partisan committee to craft further savings, but nobody will pay much attention to its results, certainly not Obama.
Step Two: The Reid-McConnell compromise will pass the Senate with five or six defections by Democrats up for re-election and a dozen or two additions from non-tea party Republicans.
Step Three: House Republicans will raise hell and refuse to pass the Senate bill. Boehner will make a show of persuading them and then, finally, confronted by the “deadline” artificially ginned up by the president, he will permit it to pass with strong Democratic support. A majority — or close to it — of his own party will vote no.
Outcome: Obama will get credit for raising the debt limit. Republican conservatives will be able to say they voted no. Boehner will keep his credibility because he got a pure debt limit bill passed only with GOP votes before he crossed the aisle for final passage.
But the real outcome will be to have brought Obama’s job approval down from its bin Laden high of 55% to a new Gallup low of 40%. That is ground he won’t be able to make up. And, put through the rigors of tension and uncertainly, the economy will sink further into a double dip recession. A recession brought on, in large part, by Obama’s crying wolf over the debt limit and creating an environment of financial and economic terror around its passage.
Republicans proved they can govern by passing their one-house debt limit increase. Their fiscal conservative credentials are intact. And Obama looks, once more, like a weak and easily cowed incompetent to his backers and a big spending and borrowing liberal to the rest of us.
Game to Obama. Set and Match to the GOP.
I don’t think the GOP is losing the debt debate
More like a GOP surrendering the debt debate
Dick Morris’ crystal ball is usually opaque at best.
One of the best two consecutive, setup posts in the history of FR!
We shall see, Mr. Morris.
Galling, infuriating & most likely true! I just pray there’s a GOP left by November 2012!
He might be right. But this is Dick Morris we are talking about, and his predictions tend to be awful. Remember his book Condi versus Hillary lol.
Yeah. Too bad he is wrong much more often than he is right.
The Michele Bachmann types or the Scott Brown types?
Yes, that book was a little off wasn’t it?
lol
In this case, others are saying similar things. Perhaps - we’ll see - but there is clearly a difference ins perception on this issue between “the folks” (as BOR would say it) - and the Ruling Class in DC. What Morris (and others) are pointing out is that the Ruling Class pols may think they’ve won the war by winning this battle over the debt ceiling, but in the end they will lose.
I know, I know...
But who - WHO!?! - thought we’d control Washington after winning control of only one house of Congress last Nov?
Think about it. The best a party that controls only the House can hope for is to slow down and impede - the R’s don’t have the votes to have things their way - - yet. That is the “war” that must be won in 2012.
And Hillary Clinton will be president.
The problem with Dick Morris’ prediction is that because of all of this noone should trust DC anymore....period.
They keep forgetting that little nugget.
Your view of reality is probably pretty accurate. I certainly don’t see the Tea Party as winning this battle to their/our satisfaction. I do see our actions as creating a forum for public debate which will enhance our position in 2012. The upper hand is slowly moving our way.
But it won't really be a cut, nor will it be "vast". It will only be a reduction in the rate of increase in spending. The debt and defict will both keep rising.
Ahem. And what would that look like, hmmm?
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