Contador likely can’t win it today unless he decimates the field as there are enough mountain stages left. But he could lose it if the Schleck’s do the opposite. As much as I cannot stand him, Contador is the likely favorite today.
"In the 2003 Tour de France, Lance Armstrong was riding with Iban Mayo at the start of the climb to Luz Ardiden when Armstrong crashed, bringing Mayo down with him. The fall was caused when Armstrong caught the handlebar of his bike on the strap of a spectator's bag. Jan Ulrich, who was riding just behind Armstrong and Mayo, avoided the crash, and in an act of chivalry he slowed to wait for the fallen riders. Armstrong quickly re-mounted his bike and caught Jan Ulrich. Immediately, Armstrong attacked the group of riders, none of whom could follow him and he powered his way to win the stage by 40 seconds."