Posted on 07/01/2011 7:58:26 PM PDT by Ready4Freddy
Unbelievable day today! Wow!! I was pacing so hard, my heart was pounding watching those last 2 K’s!
I am fine with any of these top 4 or 5 taking it in Paris, what heart they all showed & very, very happy for Andy today! Great to see Tommy Danielson doing so well, too.
Evans wants to stay close for the time trial on Saturday. Tomorrow has the potential to be an historic event.
That TT is pretty short tho’...
How much time do you think a very good TTer like Evans could put into a decent TTer like Schleck over a 26 mile course?
Champions have to rise to the occasion.
Voekler will be riding his heart out in the TT and can probably best Schleck, too. His challenge will be one more super performance in the climbs tomorrow. He is going to need support and Pierre Rolland who did a great job today seems to be his only team member who is up to the task of going with the moves.
I can't wait for the next two stages! I'm not taking any calls until 9:00AM PST
me too. I just knew Cadell was going to go and take Voekler with him. Oh well. Tomorrow may still be HUGE.
7. CONTADOR Alberto 1 SAXO BANK SUNGARD 79h 38’ 50” + 04’ 44”
Looks like someone needs to put in an order for Spanish ‘beef’ - STAT!
Am looking at the results, seems like Andy was amazing today.
Must be nice.
Thanks for the insight, Bay.
My bet is you’ll not be seeing AC ride the Giro next year.
LOL - it isn't that hard. My phone isn't ringing much lately, anyway.
Today was an epic stage. I cannot believe the other GC favorites, which at this point is Evans and Voekler, let him get away in a break. Contador will have to ride the TT of his life to even make the podium and even that’s a stretch. He must have peaked for the Giro thinking he wasn’t going to be allowed to ride the Tour. There’s also something to be said for the fact that he may not be willing to pay the price in training any more. We see it all the time with champions that are dominant for a couple of years, make millions, and aren’t willing to train as hard as they once did.
I’m just glad that we have something compelling for the first time since Contador won his first Tour.
with you on that one Bay. Voekler is a beast and has totally gained my respect.
i remember seeing him 10 years ago on his first tour when he put up a battle for the jersey on bastille day. think i got that right.
man has always been a battler, glad he is getting the recognition in his own country. must be great. i wouldnt mind if he took GC, although i still think its a toss up cadel, schleck.
I'm still thinking anyone in the top 9 which is down to Tom Danielson has the potential to take this race. Danielson is on the Garmin squad that won the Team TT and Vaughters says he can hammer. He has stayed with the bunch through the mountains so far, so who knows what he might be able to do at Grenoble if he somehow gets away tomorrow and takes a bite out of his 7 minute deficit?
#9 - Danielson is already well known in the peloton, but it just might be that the guard will be down or an attack from him might not be recognized as quick as necessary. That happening is about a 500:1 shot. But, if lightning strikes he could gain some minutes and use the TT to end up on the podium. If he is in the main group at the base of Alpe D-Huez and I'm his team director, I'm telling him to go whenever he sees an opening. There is nothing to lose and no glory in being #9.
#8 - No one is going to let Sammy Sanchez get away even though he is 5:20 back, because he is also dangerous in the TT. A dangerous side effect of Sanchez is that neither he nor Contador have any teammates with gas left in their tanks, but they are both Spaniards and will work together. The question would be whether Sanchez would chase Contador if he were to get a bit of a jump. I think that since Contador is defending a title he would be compelled to chase down Sanchez. But, Sanchez knows that.
#7 Contador has a few options still on the table. He can climb and he can time trial. I don't think he can make up 4 minutes in the TT. So, he is going to have to look for an opportunity and that is going to be very hard with Frank on his wheel everywhere he goes. In addition to being shadowed, there is a psychological impact that comes with knowing a rider who is 3:00 minutes clear of him is on his wheel saving energy and just waiting for him to move.
#6 Ivan Basso - UH-oh. This guy can climb and TT. He is a talented rider with a lot of smarts. He will be in the mix of all that transpires, both as a spoiler and as a potential podium finisher. He has a minute to the good on Contador and is only two minutes down from Evans and Frank Schleck. He is an aggressive rider; ok, frequent trouble maker and will be waiting for a chance to surprise the group. He has a wild card in Damiano Cunego, an Italian countryman who came out of no where and sits at the same time at 3:46 back.
#5 Damiano Cunego is a threat to be an upsetter in several ways. He is a top level climber who can sprint and has been working hard on his TT capabilities. Though he is a countryman and possibly an instant ally for Basso, he is a wild child. When he was just a 22 yr old kid riding for Saeco, he won the tour of Italy in which he sprinted away from his team leader Gilberto Simoni to win the 18th stage after Simoni's solo breakaway faltered. He may have matured a bit, but if he gets a chance he will hold no loyalty to anyone in this bunch.
#4 Cadell Evans may have expended a lot of his reserves today. We'll soon find out. He may be sitting in the best position of all and may also be the odds on favorite at this point. If he can ride the wheels of the Schelcks, which he proved capable of this week, he has the luxury of doing just the in order to set himself up for the TT on Saturday.
#3 Frank
#2 Andy - what do we need to know at this point? Same team, brothers, climbers and podium contenders. They will be looking to break Voekler, take revenge on Contador for last year's attack during Andy's chain drop and get a gap on Evans before the TT. If I'm their director, I'm going to have them attack and counter attack multiple times. I don't think they can gamble the podium on Evans, and Voekler both showing up weak for the TT. They probably won't mess around until Alpe-D-Huez and if they do, or if Andy gets away it will have to be an all out effort. If he were to separate himself from Basso and Contador, but end up dragging Evans with him he will stop working and the decision will be up to Cadell on whether to ride another hard day climbing or go back to the pack and wait for the race of truth.
#1 Although Cadell looks poised to take yellow from where I sit, I think Tommy is also in a great place. If he can stay with the bunch like he did today he may be able to conserve some of his reserves and use all he has on Saturday.
If a couple of riders way down in the GC go away the group will have to let them go. Wasting themselves to chance a break isn't worth it with the podium two days away. Think of this; the whole bunch could stay together for most of the day while some lower placed guys go for the stage. This could be the hardest day any of these guys have spent this year only to accomplish nothing more than not going backwards.
Whatever happens tomorrow, I'll be watching and pacing the floor tomorrow come 5:30 AM PST!!!
bay:
door 2 please. schleks to lose
voelk has swum the ocean but sadly will die on the beach
cadel...hmmm..maybe but unless he kills it in TT, no.
Hold on bee - you’ve eliminated all the contenders. Who are you pickin’?
yah my post was garbled. i meant the race is for the schleks to lose, meaning i think andy will win probably. then maybe cadel, althoough TV remains my sentimental fave
I think Andy needs to go into the TT with at least 1:30 on Cadell. If that happens, you could be making some money. Another variable is how they start in the TT. If Andy turns out to be the guy ahead of Cadell and it is a chase to close the gap and overcome him, Cadell has an advantage in my opinion. If the order is interrupted by Frank, it might not be so influential.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.