Models shifting north, should make for an interesting few days.
We’ve seen the long term forecast tracks typically shift to the right over time. Hopefully, South Texas will receive beneficial precipitation. Unfortunately, the forecast also calls for hurricane status by early Tuesday, and Category 2 storm just before landfall.
I’m guessing you saw this over at WU:
nws brownsville this am
LONG TERM /7 PM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THANKS TO WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR INLAND AND MARINE FORECAST COORDINATION EARLIER TONIGHT.
OPTED TO MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...MAKING ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION...CLOUD COVER...ETC. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE OFFICIAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX...WHICH MOVES THIS SYSTEM NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN WEST INTO MEXICO...MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN TAMAULIPAS.
WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...HAVE ATTEMPTED TO CRAFT WHAT EFFECTS ALEX WILL HAVE HERE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
INSERTED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALLY BANDS OF ALEX.
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CHANGE...GIVEN THE FACT THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ALEX.
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