Premiers Thursday, September 17 @ 8PM EDT/PDT on SeeBS
20 new contestants will compete for the $1 million prize on the islands of Samoa
Who will be the sole Survivor?
Posted on 09/09/2009 6:47:07 PM PDT by JillValentine
Premiers Thursday, September 17 @ 8PM EDT/PDT on SeeBS
20 new contestants will compete for the $1 million prize on the islands of Samoa
Who will be the sole Survivor?
I'll make this prediction right now!
MAY contain some spoiler information so highlight at your own risk!
start highlighting-> The final three will be Russell, Mick and Natalie.
However, since Russell has ticked off too many people in the jury, he'll be lucky to get even one vote. (OK maybe Shambo's, but that's it!)
That will split the jury between Mick and Natalie.
Natalie will be seen at a tail-coat-rider and Mick wins the BIG BUCKS!
CUZ - I agree but you need to switch your last two names.
:-)
CUZ<3<3<3!!
I think your prediction is correct. Any Galu but Shampoo in the final three wins it all. Although if Brett doesn’t win immunity from here on out, he’s toast. And Russ, Nat and Mick are just smart enough to know that Galu knows Shampoo sold them out and wouldn’t reward her.
It never ceases to amaze me how a tribe can come to the merge with a severe numbers handicapp and come back and win it all. All Galu had to do in the first round was vote off Nat, Jaison or Mick. That would have given them an 8-3 advantage. Then they could have split their votes at TC 4 to 4 for Russell and one of the remaining Foa Foa until L’il Russell had played all of his immunity idols. They always seem to get blinded by some kind of “girls will vote out all the guys” or the reverse.
Now they’re outnumbered 4-2 by a Tribe that couldn’t win a challenge to save its life. And Shampoo will be next unless she wins immunity. Then Brett. And then I’m thinking it’ll be Jaison. Of course, isn’t final five the last time you can use your HII? After that, Russell will be screwed.
Aiga (Merged) Tribe: Brett, Jaison, Mick, Natalie, Russell H., Shambo
The Jury: Erik, Kelly, Laura, John, Dave, Monica
Losers: Marisa, Mike, Betsy, Ben, Yasmin, Ashley, Russell S., Liz
DAVE AND MONICA VOTED OUT IN DOUBLE BOOT EPISODE
After returning to camp from Tribal Council, Shambo is shocked at how the vote went down. “I had no idea they were voting John. The plan was to vote Dave and I am positively stunned,” she fumes. Russell immediately assesses the damage caused by going against Shambo by reassuring her that keeping her in the dark was necessary in order to protect her from John. Russell makes Shambo believe that John was gunning for her before the last Tribal Council, so he had to go against Shambo’s wishes of voting out Dave. “Next time, Russ, we need to get rid of Dave,” Shambo firmly states. “This is too easy,” says Russell.
GUNNING FOR RUSSELL
As the sun rises over the Aiga camp the following morning, Jaison exposes Russell’s secret to Brett and Monica as they strategize by the beach. “He told Mick he made two million dollars last year,” Jaison reveals. Brett tries to persuade Jaison to turn on Russell, but Jaison reminds him that it is just a matter of time since Russell only has until Day 36 to play the hidden immunity idol at Tribal Council. Brett sees this as a sign of weakness in the Foa Foa Four. “I’m starting to see some of the cracks in their armor and I think this will be the time that tests their loyalty to each other,” Brett hypothesizes.
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE: FAUXCONUT BOWLING
The Aiga tribe arrives on their mat at an outdoor bowling alley. Host Jeff Probst shocks the castaways when he announces that they will be playing for immunity and not for a reward, as they had expected. He then describes the rules of the challenge, which will be a Survivor Bowling Tournament. Tribe members will be randomly matched up against one another and will have two shots to roll the ball and knock down as many pins as they can. The winner moves on to the next round, while the loser is out of the challenge. The last person left standing wins immunity.
Shambo triumphs over Natalie in the first match up. “This is for all of my friends that play on a bowling league,” says Shambo. Russell defeats Brett in the next match up, and Jaison defeats Monica in the following match up. Dave bowls a strike, defeating Mick in the last match up of the first round. In the first match up of the second round, Shambo beats Russell. Jaison beats Dave in the next match up, moving him on to the final round against Shambo. Jaison wins his second individual immunity in a row after defeating Shambo in the final round.
WHAT TO DO WITH SHAMBO
As the final eight castaways return to camp after the immunity challenge, they begin to discuss whom to vote out next. Dave warns Monica to be mindful of Russell’s actions, which might help them deduce who is on the chopping block. The Foa Foa Four’s most obvious decision is to vote out Dave in order to keep Shambo on their side. “We stirred up enough by getting rid of John. We don’t want to anger her or get her upset,” says Mick. Monica suddenly begins to stir up trouble amongst the Foa Foa Four by planting seeds in Russell’s head to get rid of Shambo. Russell, now on the fence of who to oust next, advises Dave that, in order to keep himself in the game, he must vote for Shambo at the upcoming Tribal Council. “Truthfully, I don’t even need Shambo. I could let Shambo throw away her vote just like she did against John, and I could get rid of Shambo,” Russell ponders. “I believe what Russ says, but if Dave is not voted off tonight, I think Russ and I are going to be having a chat,” says Shambo in the moments before Tribal Council.
TRIBAL COUNCIL
At Tribal Council, Shambo reaffirms her desire to take the strongest people to the end, but admits that voting out John was not her decision. Dave lays out his strategy of taking people with him to the end that think they would do better with him in the finals, while Russell’s strategy is quite the opposite. “If you know that some people are gonna get all the votes, then you wanna get rid of them,” says Russell. With this, Shambo got her wish, and Dave was voted out with seven out of the eight votes cast against him. Dave Ball, the 38 year-old fitness instructor from Los Angeles, California, became the eleventh person voted out and the fifth member of the jury of SURVIVOR: SAMOA.
NEXT ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
The next morning, Russell worries that Brett may be the last powerful player in the game and must be the next to go. Mick becomes paranoid over Russell’s comments at the previous Tribal Council, and approaches him with concern. “Last night you’re like if somebody feels like the jury is gonna like them more, you got to get rid of them,” Mick worries. Russell reassures Mick that he was simply referring to Brett when he made that comment. “It makes me nervous thinking you’re nervous,” Russell warns Mick. With Mick’s loyalty to Russell uncertain, Russell begins to question whether he should keep his old ally around. “When you freak out that much, you’ll flip. That worries me that he’s gonna send me home, ‘cause that’s what I would do,” Russell reveals.
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE: WALK ON WATER
The Aiga tribe arrives on their mat. Host Jeff Probst explains the rules of the challenge. Each tribe member must race out into the water, retrieve one of three bags and race back. They will then use a plank to launch their bag into their basket. The first person to get all three of their bags into their basket wins immunity.
The castaways race out into the water to retrieve their bags and immediately return to the beach. Brett is the first to get his bag into his basket with Mick, Russell and Shambo right behind. Brett gets his second bag in the basket, followed by Mick and Russell. Brett returns with his final bag, but continues to miss. This gives Mick an opportunity to catch up, but ultimately, Brett is able to get his final bag in his basket and wins immunity.
MONICA STIRS UP TROUBLE
With Brett safe at the upcoming Tribal Council, Monica is aware that she is the last of the original Galu tribe besides Shambo, who has been aligned with Foa Foa since the beginning. Monica’s only hope is to cause chaos amongst the Foa Foa Four by pitting them against one another. She approaches Russell with the knowledge that he is already a multi-millionaire, and reveals that it was Natalie who spilled the beans and turned against him. Feeling betrayed, Russell is furious and storms off to confront Natalie. “I never told her what you just said,” Natalie reassures Russell after he accused her of betraying him. Russell is now completely confused, and confronts Brett to find out who ratted him out. Brett tells Russell the truth, stating that it was Jaison who revealed the secret. Russell reprimands Jaison for carelessly revealing information that was considered to be confidential to Monica and her Galu cohorts. Although Jaison ultimately admits to being the culprit, he brushes it off, stating that Monica is simply trying to stay in the game. After Russell leaves Jaison’s side, Jaison contemplates getting rid of Russell after witnessing his outbursts against his own allies. Russell, however, smells trouble, and stuffs his immunity idol in his pocket to prepare for the worst should he need to use it at Tribal Council.
TRIBAL COUNCIL
At Tribal Council, Russell shocks everyone when he instantly takes out the hidden immunity idol and places it around his neck. “I think Russell is getting a little cocky up in here,” Monica states. “Nobody knows what you’re gonna do with it. That’s what makes it so powerful,” Russell confirms. Shambo describes the scenario at camp when Monica caused chaos amongst the Foa Foa Four. Monica expresses delight in shaking up her opponents, while Russell reveals that her actions only placed a target on her back. After the vote, Russell opts to not play the hidden immunity idol. Ultimately, Russell made the right move, and Monica was voted out with five out of the seven votes cast against her. Monica Padilla, the 25 year-old law student from San Diego, California, became the twelfth person voted out and the sixth member of the jury of SURVIVOR: SAMOA.
I'll be back on Thursday with next week's preview and picks.
I’m mostly making my guesses based on “winner’s edits.” Someone who wins the million dollars will be edited a certain way by the producers. Brett and Natalie have not been given a winner’s edit because they’ve gotten so little screen time. Russell has not been given a winner’s edit - if he won the game, it’s highly unlikely he would have been promoted as the “greatest villain ever.” Shambo is completely undeserving and could never win with the way this jury is made up.
Therefore, I’m 99% certain that the winner will be either Jaison or Mick.
For the past few weeks, work obligations have prevented me from being at a computer during the two or three-hour period in which spoilers have been posted but before the show starts. If anyone wants to post more accurate spoilers in white font when they become available feel free.
Aiga (Merged) Tribe: Brett, Jaison, Mick, Natalie, Russell H., Shambo
The Jury: Erik, Kelly, Laura, John, Dave, Monica
Losers: Marisa, Mike, Betsy, Ben, Yasmin, Ashley, Russell S., Liz
Episode 13 title: "Two Brains Are Better Than One"
Reward Challenge: A mental puzzle. Contestants are divided into two teams of three. Players will pull ropes on a structure, trying to keep as many coconuts, which are being supported by the ropes, as possible from falling.
Immunity Challenge: ?
Spoilers (highlight to see):
Reward challenge winner: Team of Jaison/Russell/Shambo
Immunity challenge winner: ?
Voted Off: Brett
I'll be back after the show with the recap.
Waiting to see how Kerplunk is played with Coconuts.
Is it the most down with the least strings pulled or the most still up with the most strings pulled?
Should be a great episode. We’re getting down to the nitty-gritty.
Mick with a winner’s edit? Is there a Mick on the show?
:-)
Micks clips seemed to all be “I love Shambo, great girl”.
My guess is that Brett is gone if he doesn’t win immunity. If he does, then I think Russell has to jettison Shambo in order to keep Jaison and Mick from mutiny. (Russell has both Jaison/Mick and Natalie/Shambo thinking he has Final 3 with them)
This leaves them with the chance to still get rid of Brett at F5, leaving the 4 Foa-Foa as the Final 4...
then at F4, you would expect Mick/Jaison vs. Russell/Natalie. (I would expect Natalie to win any of the traditional endurance type challenges).
At this point, Mick probably would feel he has a better chance to win with Jaison out of the picture so he would side with Russell and Natalie and dump Jaison...
So, my guesses based on watching all 19 seasons is:
tonight- Brett (or Shambo if Brett wins immunity)
Sunday first out- Shambo (or Brett if Shambo goes tonight)
Final Four- Russell/Natalie/Mick/Jaison
Final Three- Russell/Natalie/Mick
Sole Survivor- Natalie because of a bitter whiny jury that won’t recognize the great game that Russell played.
These are just my guesses, I have no inside information.
When Shambo goes it will be a blind side.
She’ll be POed.
Frankly, I think you’re right. The jury would not see it has game play by Russell - they’ll see Russell’s advancement in the game as a result of his finding so many idols. Also, it’s gotten out that Russell’s rich, and although it shouldn’t matter in the course of a game, the jury will be reluctant to give him $1 million for what they perceive as a lucky streak.
And sorry, Shampoo can’t go fast enough for me. I find her histrionics annoying.
Don’t get me wrong, I can’t stand Shambo...
But Russell would be best off with her and Natalie beside him at the Final Three... IMHO
Well there she goes.
I must say her last words were very nice. Said she helped them get to where they were but admired them for sticking together.
5 to 1. Once again a straight vote with only the booted one voting for somebody else.
Oh, Keeper of Survivor Knowledge (Jill) is the Blank to 1 voting since the merge some kind of survivor record?
Since the merge, only 2 of the 7 votes have been ____ to 1. However, before the merge, 4 of the 6 votes were ____ to 1. That could be a record. The early Foa Foas sure were dumb, letting Russell control everything while they had the numbers to overthrow him all along.
:-)
i think Russell can’t beat anyone against the Jury that is left, but he might be able to adapt his game in time for S20 and the other players on S20 won’t know Russell which is a HUGE advantage.
I see the boot order now as
Brett
Jaison
Mick/Russell/Natalie final 3
probably Natalie for the win.
Russell H. 78
Shambo 36
Jaison 29
Mick 24
Erik 17
John 17
Dave 16
Monica 15
Russell S. 15
Laura 14
Ashley 11
Natalie 11
Liz 9
Brett 7
Kelly 6
Ben 5
Betsy 5
Mike 5
Marisa 3
Yasmin 3
Why all the animosity toward Shambo? I actually liked her and wanted her to win. She was treated horribly by her tribe from the beginning of the game because she didn’t fit into the girly girl atmosphere created by the other women on the tribe. She served her country, which no one else on that tribe did. I found her to be the most genuine of anyone out there, though I have also gained respect for Natalie. I watched the Ponderosa videos of Shambo this morning to see how the Galu women treated her and, true to form, they wouldn’t even talk to her. Shame on them.
I’m in complete agreement with you.
Aiga (Merged) Tribe: Brett, Jaison, Mick, Natalie, Russell H.
The Jury: Erik, Kelly, Laura, John, Dave, Monica, Shambo
Losers: Marisa, Mike, Betsy, Ben, Yasmin, Ashley, Russell S., Liz
SHAMBO VOTED OUT
As the final six castaways wind down for the night at camp upon their return from Tribal Council, Brett massages the Foa Foa Four’s greatest ally, Shambo. “Brett, I think you should be a massage therapist,†says Shambo in state of bliss. Realizing that all of his original allies in the game are out, Brett’s goal is simple. “I’m the last true Galu and I’m a fighter and I’m gonna keep doing what I’m doing and make it as far as possible,†Brett proclaims. Russell, however, has a keen eye on Brett after his immunity challenge win, and sees him as the last big threat left in the game. “As soon as Brett loses, he’s gone. He has to because he’ll keep winning and keep winning all the way to the top,†says Russell.
PRAYER WARRIORS
At the dawn of Day 34, Brett bonds with Natalie over their intense Christian beliefs, quoting passages from The Bible while they lay in the shelter. “Natalie and I come from I think a similar walk of life, and I think something like that is a great foundation for a trusting relationship, so you know I think that our personal interactions potentially can turn into something really promising,†says Brett. Natalie is in concord with Brett over their religious commonalities. “It’s been nice to have that in common,†she says.
Meanwhile, Shambo gives Russell a chuckle when she makes a comment about needing a haircut. “Mullet went out in the ‘70’s. It looks terrible. Her hair is funky,†Russell insists. “She puts bananas in there and pieces of coconut. It’s nasty,†laughs Russell. Unbeknownst to Shambo, Russell will not hesitate to oust her the first chance he gets. “If I didn’t need Shambo, I would definitely get rid of her because, you know I’m doing whatever it takes to win the game,†Russell reveals.
REWARD CHALLENGE: COCO PLUNK
The final six castaways arrive on their mat. Host Jeff Probst explains the rules of the challenge. The tribe will divide into two teams of three. There are a series of intersecting ropes holding up coconuts. One at a time, tribe members will walk out and pull one rope out. The goal is to drop as few coconuts as possible. The first team to drop 100 coconuts loses the challenge. The winning team will be taken to a local village where they will have a massive feast and spend the night sleeping on soft beds. Jeff then presents the tribe with a bag of colored balls that they randomly draw to determine team captains. Yellow and purple are the captains, which are drawn by Russell and Natalie. In a shocking move, Natalie chooses Brett first, followed by Mick. Russell chooses Jaison and Shambo for his teammates.
At the beginning of the challenge, Natalie leads Brett in a prayer to win the challenge, and Russell spots the two holding hands. “I’m surprised by Natalie’s first pick…straight to Brett,†he whispers to Shambo. “We’re gonna have to break that up over there. Something might be going on,†Russell warns Shambo. Yellow lags behind with 29 to 4 coconuts in the first half of the challenge. Mick drops 19 coconuts, bringing the purple team’s coconut total to 23. Just as the yellow team gets a hint of hope, Jaison drops 48 coconuts, bringing the yellow team’s total to 77. Natalie is up next for the purple team. “God has taken care of me for sure,†she assures herself as she walks up to the challenge. “My prediction is 58,†says Shambo. Just as Shambo predicted, Natalie drops 58 coconuts, bringing the purple team’s total to 81. Russell is up next, and after careful examination and threading of his rope, he does not drop a single coconut for the yellow team. “Dude! Are you freaking kidding me?†Shambo cheers. Brett drops 23 coconuts for the purple team, bringing their coconut count to 104. The yellow team of Russell, Jaison and Shambo win the reward challenge.
THE VILLAGE REWARD FEAST
After the challenge, Russell, Jaison and Shambo venture off to a remote Samoan village and partake in a delicious feast. The native Samoans welcome them as they indulge in food and dance. “To have that day off was absolutely amazing,†Jaison cheers after enduring several difficult days of starvation and game play. Russell sees the reward feast as an advantage over Mick and Brett, who are left back at camp, hungry and defeated. “I think it’s a great thing that they didn’t win today,†admits Russell. Shambo makes a toast to the people of Samoa, who are eternally grateful. “What I most wanted to do in Samoa was be part of that cultural experience with the native tribes here and I was so happy,†says Shambo. The natives then break out into song and dance, while Russell, Jaison and Shambo join in. “I’ve been fortified by the power of food, and now I’m about to get jiggy with it,†says Jaison. The three end their day with a group hug. “I love you guys,†says Shambo.
THE LOSERS’ REWARD
Back at the Aiga camp, Brett suggests that he, Natalie and Mick create their own reward by collecting snails to eat and enjoy a day of leisure. Everyone is for it, and the threesome bond as they collect the food. Natalie and Mick take note of Brett’s uplifting personality. “Brett’s an amazing person. If I have to be standing next to a Galu, you know, Brett is awesome, but I have been in with Russell since the very first day,†says Natalie. “Hopefully my mind is thinking clear enough to look at the end to be able to win the game,†Natalie concludes.
SOMETHING’S UP WITH NATALIE
As Russell, Shambo and Jaison crawl into their comfortable beds at the village reward, Jaison questions Natalie’s decision to choose Brett as her first pick during the challenge. “I’ll tell you what I call it: very telling,†says Shambo. Russell assures Jaison and Shambo that when he gets back to camp, he will pull Natalie aside to solidify what they have and get to the bottom of why she appears to be aligned with Brett. Russell, however, already knows that Natalie is loyal to him. “My whole point of this is to get rid of Brett or Mick. Those two are big threats. They’re likable guys, and then there’s nothing else that can stop me,†Russell proclaims.
STRATEGIZING WITH NATALIE
The next day, Russell approaches Natalie and probes her about her decision to pick Brett as her first choice in the reward challenge. “Now they were worried because you picked Brett,†Russell warns Natalie, referring to Jaison and Shambo. “They freaked out. Everybody. Every single person there,†Russell continues. When Russell points out that Natalie’s actions put a target on Mick and Brett, Natalie confirms that was her plan with Russell all along. “So we gotta get rid of Mick or Brett,†Russell decides. Russell confides in Natalie that he is sure that he is in control of the game, and vows to oust Brett first if he does not win the immunity challenge. “They say don’t get confident in this game. You know what? I’m confident as hell,†Russell proudly states.
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE: COMBO PLATTER
The Aiga tribe arrives on their mat. Host Jeff Probst explains the rules of the challenge. Each tribe member will race out into a field where they must count the number of objects in each of the six stations. They will use tiles to remember the number of each item they have counted, and then use those numbers to solve a combination lock. The order of the numbers will be different for each person. The first person to solve the combination and break their tile wins immunity.
The castaways race off into the field, counting various objects ranging from fish to live pigs. Each of the six tribe members use different strategies, some taking more time counting, while others count their stations one at a time. Mick and Jaison are the first back with all six numbers and begin working to solve their combination. Brett is the next to collect all six numbers, followed by Russell. As all four men attempt to solve their combination locks, Jaison is the first who thinks he has it, but is wrong. Jaison races back out into the field to recount the objects while Brett, Russell and Mick attempt to solve their combination. The three men race to the finish, and Mick and Brett arrive at their final numbers at the same time. Mick is wrong, while Brett is correct. Brett wins immunity, guaranteeing him a spot in the final five.
FOA FOA CHANGES GEARS
With Brett having won immunity, the Foa Foa Four’s hopes for ousting him are shattered. Jaison arrives at a new plan to get rid of Brett by voting off Shambo. “If we’re going to have a shot at Brett, then we got to have Mick,†he suggests to Russell. Just as Jaison walks off, Shambo approaches Russell and interrogates him over what Jaison just said. Russell lies to Shambo by telling her that Jaison wants to get rid of Mick. Shambo becomes paranoid that she is being targeted, and bluntly asks Russell if Jaison wants to vote her out. Russell brushes off her comment and reassures her that the tribe is voting for Mick. “I attributed more helpfulness to the Foa Foa tribe than anybody and I don’t think they’re ever gonna forget that, but I don’t think anybody’s beyond the chopping block, including myself,†says Shambo. Just as Shambo predicted, Russell begins gunning with Mick to vote off Shambo, mouthing off that she is an annoyance and was only kept around for votes. Mick is shocked at Russell’s sudden change of heart with Shambo, and becomes paranoid that he is being lied to. Russell tells Shambo that Mick thinks that she is going home tonight when truthfully, Russell is unsure of whom to vote for. While Shambo would be a great choice to keep around because she would most likely get little to no votes from the jury, keeping Mick around would be beneficial for the survival of the Foa Foa Four: “Keep athletes together to be able to beat Brett in the next immunity challenge,†says Russell. Russell wears the hidden immunity idol necklace as he walks out to Tribal Council since it is the final time that he can play it.
TRIBAL COUNCIL
At Tribal Council, Natalie illuminates the fact that Shambo betrayed everyone on the jury and would be an excellent choice of someone to take to the finals. Russell admits that his allegiance to Shambo tops that of his with some of the Foa Foa Four, to Mick’s surprise. Jaison reveals that Brett’s back-to-back immunity challenge wins puts a target on his back, and in order to defeat him, the Foa Foa Four have to make a big move. Shambo backs up Jaison’s comment by stating that Brett is not only an immunity threat, but a jury threat as well. With this, the final six members of Aiga cast their votes, and with five out of the six votes cast against her, Shambo was voted out. Shannon “Shambo†Waters, the 45 year-old former Marine from Renton, Washington, became the thirteenth person voted out and seventh member of the jury of SURVIVOR: SAMOA.
Remember, the two-hour Survivor finale is this Sunday, December 20, at 8 PM on SeeBS, followed by the one-hour reunion show. See you there!
Thanks, JillValentine!
You rock!
:-)
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