I can’t go along with you on that. Example: I have been hearing since I was a child that we would have Nuclear Fusion power plants in 20 years. That was 50 years ago and I’m still hearing it.
Yeah, I understand where you are coming from on that one. In the early 60’s they also believed that in a few years computers could EFFECTIVELY translate any language to any other. But we’re not really very close, even though computers have dramatically improved in processing power.
That said, sometimes the breakthrough’s come. In this case it was the remarks in the youtube video about the anticipated strides in computing power coupled with my own belief that computers dramatically increase the speed at which humans advance in knowledge.
I have no doubt whatsoever that if you were to be projected only 15 years in the future that the world would appear to work via magic.
That is not all that bold a prediction. If you were to project an average person from 60 years ago to today, they would FIRMLY believe it was due to magic.
I base this all on my belief that man advances exponentially and I see it as the last few days of the analogous “work for a guy for a penny a day but double the pay every day for 30 days”.
The penny’s per day for the first few thousand years of man’s recorded history have built up to those last few days.
The guy earns 2 cents on the second day, but $10,500 on the 21st day. I think of that as the 1800’s. Now, I see us as at the 29th day and we are at $2,685,000. The next three days (maybe ten years) will be fascinating. It is a parabolic curve and eventually goes straight up without ever touching the verticle axis.