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Yeah, I understand where you are coming from on that one. In the early 60’s they also believed that in a few years computers could EFFECTIVELY translate any language to any other. But we’re not really very close, even though computers have dramatically improved in processing power.

That said, sometimes the breakthrough’s come. In this case it was the remarks in the youtube video about the anticipated strides in computing power coupled with my own belief that computers dramatically increase the speed at which humans advance in knowledge.

I have no doubt whatsoever that if you were to be projected only 15 years in the future that the world would appear to work via magic.

That is not all that bold a prediction. If you were to project an average person from 60 years ago to today, they would FIRMLY believe it was due to magic.

I base this all on my belief that man advances exponentially and I see it as the last few days of the analogous “work for a guy for a penny a day but double the pay every day for 30 days”.

The penny’s per day for the first few thousand years of man’s recorded history have built up to those last few days.

The guy earns 2 cents on the second day, but $10,500 on the 21st day. I think of that as the 1800’s. Now, I see us as at the 29th day and we are at $2,685,000. The next three days (maybe ten years) will be fascinating. It is a parabolic curve and eventually goes straight up without ever touching the verticle axis.

"...believed that in a few years computers could EFFECTIVELY translate any language to any other. But we’re not really very close, even though computers have dramatically improved in processing power."

Heck, I'd be happy if they just got voice recognition transcription in English more accurate. As a court reporter, I can't even get it to recognize my own voice with much more than a 98% accuracy on non-legal, non-technical testimony. Throw in doctor's testimony or other technical/professional testimony, the recognition drops drastically. Throw in an Indian, German, Mexican, South Korean or even a Texas/Deep Southern accent with technical/professional testimony, and you might as well have a monkey in a box typing along with the audio.

As I keep telling my reporters, 98% accuracy on a page that has 200 words, means that at least two words per page are wrong. Kick that up to a 200-page transcript (approximately three hours of in-court time) and you've already made at least 600 mistakes.

The voice recognition system that we use .. Dragon .. even with sustained voice training and with an as tightly-worded dictionary as possible still occasionally gives me "the elephants on the fence" as opposed to the "the elements of the offense".

And you're waiting for translation from one language to another? There's definitely going to have be more of a breakthrough than just processing power.

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