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I previously posted the following at http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2192877/posts : Basically trying to get a good estimate on how much time we have before a major collapse such as we saw in Iceland. Having a hard time finding some good websites that have good models on what we are likely to encounter if national debt gets much bigger, or China refuses to attend future Treasury T-Bill auctions.

Hey, I have 4 kids and I need to provide and protect them, as much as I can, from harm and hardship. There is too much conflicting information for one man to sort out. I have read that I should: 1. Watch news on the US. Treasury Auctions, as if less buyers or China doesn’t buy then I am justified in resorting to panic? 2. Panic when intrade World Crisis Index hits 75? www.intrade.com/widgets/crisis/WorldCrisisIndex.html 3. Panic when US service on debt gets close to or exceeds US revenue receipts? 4. Just before Obama nationalizes(which is imminent) the banks? Isn’t that the trigger point where the Krona currency in Iceland dropped by half its value? 5. We are Freepers, so why did we fail at not recognizing what was happening on 9/15/08 until long after the occurrence? Isn’t there some way we could have known about it so we could decide whether to panic or not? For example, isn’t there some indices or measure we could be watching to see if its about to happen again? http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/198/21350/

Thanks for any information you can provide. Is there any other issues I am failing to consider? I posted some previous questions that weren’t fully answered. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2179659/posts

Yeah, that’s what I am asking. ABOUT how much time do we have? We have the some of the smartest people here on this forum, so we should be able to point to a few measures or websites that monitor this stuff. For example, is there some measure like money supply, financial calculations. Surely, the people in Iceland, Argentina, and Rhodesia could have worked at finding some advance notice of the pain before it fully impacted them. Why can’t we?

(Dream Journal? I have in the past.)

YOU’RE MORE UP ON IT THAN I AM!

We have an acre here etc. Doing tolerably for partially retired folks.

My own expectation is that there will likely be 3-9 or maybe at most 12-18 months of pseudo recovery and ‘happy times’ again. Everyone will be singing OThuga’s praises even more.

Then the super crash will occur and not get better until after the literal Armageddon.

However, I don’t know any prophetic sources who have been flawless about timing.

And, I don’t even know any secular speculators who I’d trust much.

IF YOU FIND SUCH, PLEASE, PLEASE, PING ME!

>>>Yeah, that’s what I am asking. ABOUT how much time do we have? We have the some of the smartest people here on this forum, so we should be able to point to a few measures or websites that monitor this stuff. For example, is there some measure like money supply, financial calculations. Surely, the people in Iceland, Argentina, and Rhodesia could have worked at finding some advance notice of the pain before it fully impacted them. Why can’t we?<<<<

Don’t think you will find any billboards with the countdown - XXXX Index at 50 - If it drops one more point - we will collapse...

Back in November 2006, I had time to really evaluate the situation at hand (having spent the summer trying to get a broken leg to heal) and decided to move diversified 401k’s (mine and wife’s) to Guaranteed Bonds. So, I only averaged about 4.5% for the last 2 years - better than if I had not. So, it was then that I also figured it was time to seriously put my skills and knowledge into active status. Have been preparing not only by stockpiling, but by building to produce full variety of food products and actively utilizing them.

My hazy crystal ball - Hmmmmm Sure looks like the end of this quarter is going to be a breaking point. I am preparing for that deadline! Hoping to help some fellow FReepers along too. (As well as our family - Including extended members.)

Now I better get back to planting those tomatoes, cabbage, broccoli, onion and other seeds. 1 1/2 acre garden takes lots of plants and seeds...

Oooops almost forgot - Welcome to the thread - share more with us...

First, great question.

Second, thanks for posting the links to other posts and articles.

It was about September 15th. Here's the facts, and we don't even talk about these things. On Thursday at about 11:00 in the morning, the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous drawdown of money market accounts in the United States to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in a matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help. They pumped $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn't be further panic out there and that's what actually happened. If they had not done that, their estimation was that by 2:00 that afternoon, $5 1/2 trillion would have been drown off the money market system of the United States, would have collapsed the entire economy of the United States and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed.

hmmmm, this guarantee of $250,000 is only good until September 2009. Perhaps that will be our end date.

Your #1 scenario - China quits buying our Treasuries - I'd say that's a sure end date. Without anyone buying our debt, we're toast. Nationalizing banks as well - then banks will not be able to make their own decisions on how to prosper. And there's already talks of this.

I think we all need to be prepared NOW. And then wait and see when it comes to pass. Get all the supplies you can now, perhaps some precious metals, guns and ammo for sure - and find a place to move to if you are not already in a rural setting. We're not moving (yet) and still need to move our supplies to our cabin. But, there's no point doing that until all the snow melts and we can put in a sea train. So, I just hope all remains stable until then, at least. And we'll stay in the city for now (where the work is), but plan to relocate at a moment's (or two) notice.

Do you have yourself stocked up with long-term storage food? And guns and ammo? And a place to move to (if needed)?

BTW, you're doing better than most just by asking these questions. My extended family refuse to consider that anythig bad might happen. They think I'm a tin-foil hat nutcase by trying to make them aware. I figure I've done my duty just by trying to tell them about the possibilities. What they do or don't do is on them now.

5. We are Freepers, so why did we fail at not recognizing what was happening on 9/15/08 until long after the occurrence? Isn’t there some way we could have known about it so we could decide whether to panic or not?<<<

We tried to warn folks and they were not ready to listen, that is why there are 10,000 posts in the first thread, the link is on page one of this thread.

How long?

Until you loose your job, would be my guess.

Store safe food now, keep it simple and rotate it.

There isn’t a lot one can do, except stop spending and store money and the needed things for survival.

Take a look at your monthly bills, disconnect the cable tv, get a radio, have only a basic phone, not all the frills that cost more each month than the phone service.

Browse through these threads, back about 3 or 400 posts are several on what to do with the kids that does not cost money.

Can you plant a garden?

Will you still have a house to live in or car, if you loose your job?

For the things you might need, even clothes for the kids, join Free Cycle group for your area, they are at Yahoo Groups.

You donate something and then you can ask for what you want and in my area, we are a fairly low income group, so I am amazed at what I see asked for and then see a post thanking someone for giving it to them.

I smile, thinking of the free for all, when my sister has to settle my estate, for I want much of it to go to the local folks.

If I were you and did not have secure housing, I would join the Free Cycle group and ask about a free travel trailer.

So what if some of you have to sleep on the floor, it beats sleeping in the car.

When we came to California during the great depression to pick fruit, it was in a car and there we lived, 3 kids and 2 adults.

When we came back the second time, my dad had attached a plywood box to a car axle and we had a very rough travel trailer, very crude, rough benches for pallets and a shelf for the kerosene stove, sure did beat the car.

Instead of asking when, it would be better to assume that it is going to hit before you are ready, and start getting ready.

Have a garage sale, raise some money, get over keeping up with the jones and only buy the important stuff, make do, reuse and remake.

When I get in a box and nothing is clear, I sit down with a stack of paper, and I write down everything I can think of, you will wind up with 20 to 50 sheets of lists, for quickly, you discover that that should go on a ‘sales’ list, and that on a buy list and so it goes, do it when alone and bright minded.

Put it all down, it is for you and no one else.

You will be amazed at the thoughts you have, soon you will have pro and con lists and so they grow, until you reach the final summary and it will show what to do.

Sorry I couldn’t give you a date.