In terms of election 2006, note that the prediction markets nailed it, that we would be losing both the house & senate, whereas only about 8% of Freepers saw it coming.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts?page=22#22
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
I suppose if there are to be predictions for 2009, Intrade would be the place to go. As a followup, note that Intrade nailed the 2008 election, they were correct on 48/50 states.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/3090.page
05/11/2008 15:47:57 Subject: Re:Intrade correctly predicts each and every state
Lee
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Intrade got 48/50 by my count, reversing IN and MO. On election eve, the market predicted narrowly for McCain in Indiana and Obama in MO. But the electoral count was still right, because both states have 11 EVs.