Posted on 09/25/2008 8:03:27 AM PDT by wrhssaxensemble
The Missouri bellwether is a political phenomenon that notes that the state of Missouri has voted for the winner in every U.S. Presidential election beginning in 1904 except in 1956. Missouri is also considered a bellwether of U.S. views on hot-button social issues such as stem cell research,[1] school vouchers,[2] and same-sex marriage.[3][4] Some economists also consider the state a bellwether for economic trends such as consumer confidence and unemployment.[5]
[edit] Political history Between 1960 and 2004, Missouri's popular vote was within about one and a half percent of the national popular vote margin. The lone exception was the Dwight Eisenhower landslide of 1956, when the state gave a 4,000-vote plurality — two-tenths of one percent — to neighboring Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. Missouri's 96% accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the "too close to call" elections of 1948, 1960, 1976, and 2000.(Allthough in 2000, Missouri indicated only the winner of the electoral vote, not the popular vote.) In recent election years, a Presidential debate has always been held at Washington University in St. Louis or the University of Missouri-St. Louis.
In 2006, Missouri's bellwether status gained renewed attention because of the 2006 Senate race between incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent and Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill, which was considered vital to which party controls Congress.[6][7] Additionally, Missouri had a ballot measure, Missouri Amendment Two, regarding stem cell research that drew national attention as an indicator of mainstream sentiment towards this controversial issue.[8] On Election Day 2006, both McCaskill and Amendment 2 narrowly received majority support among Missouri voters. McCaskill's victory as well as the victory of Sherrod Brown over Sen. Mike DeWine in Ohio and Jim Webb's defeat of Senator George Allen in Virginia were key to Democrats regaining power in the U.S. Senate.[9]
[edit] Possible causes The cause of Missouri's bellwether status is most often cited as its location and demographics. The Chicago Tribune calls Missouri the "bellwether state that almost exactly mirrors the demographic, economic and political makeup of the nation."[10] A microcosm of the country's current political make up, Missouri has its two Blue "coasts" of St. Louis and Kansas City with Red middle and southern areas.
Since 1980 the mean center of U.S. population of the United States (which has been moving steadily westward) is in Missouri (currently in Phelps County). Missouri is in the center of the country, distant from the coast and the national borders. It shares a border with three Southern states, three Plains states, and two Midwestern states.
Missouri has a mixture of urban, suburban and rural populations. In the state's two urban areas, St. Louis considers itself the furthest west of the eastern cities while Kansas City considers itself the furthest east of the western cities.
Missouri was a border state in the American Civil War. After the state legislature voted to secede, it was represented by competing factions in both the Confederate and Union governments. Missourians fought on both sides of the conflict, and the state was the site of repeated military clashes throughout the war.
[edit] Continued bellwether status? Whether Missouri will continue to be a bellwether remains to be seen. One of the more important national phenomena that has not had the same impact in Missouri as in the rest of the country is the influx of immigrants, particularly Latinos. Analysts and journalists in recent times have pointed to states like Ohio[11], New Mexico[12], Pennsylvania[13], and California[14] as more accurate political and cultural bellwethers. As for Missouri, Slate columnist Chris Suellentrop has said that the state "isn't so much a bellwether as it is a weathervane: It doesn't swing the country, the country swings it..." and that Missouri is a better indicator of whether a trend is mainstream than of what the next new trend will be.[15]
Currently, RCP says McCain is 4.7 points ahead in Missouri
and a bunch of other polls I have seen online, even in the more liberal parts (AOL etc.) have predicted that overall McCain will win... any thoughts on this?
Every straw poll on AOL that I’ve taken has shown McCain up over Obama by more than 60%-35%...My take is that when its anonymous and people don’t have to talk to anyone, this is the true vote! I will be surprised if McCain doesn’t win more than 289 electoral votes on election night...
I hope this is a good sign. I am extremely worried right now. For Obama to be going UP in the poles after a huge financial crisis breaks - a crisis for which there is literally tons of evidence that it was caused by Democrats... Well, let’s just say it’s not encouraging.
Obama is toast. People just dont want empty suits and politics as usual anymore..
McCain is all about “Show Me”, whereas Hussein has to be called just to show up.
“a crisis for which there is literally tons of evidence that it was caused by Democrats..”
If the MSM would devote a mere 5 minutes a day to stating that fact, the polls would become redundant.
But, of course, they will not even devote 1 second a day to reporting the true cause of this crisis.
Obama is toast. People just dont want empty suits and politics as usual anymore..I hope that you are right, but that's not how I see it. What I see is that the media is so hopelessly in the tank for Obama, that your average joe is mostly seeing pro-Obama, anti-McCain coverage.
I mean the evidence that the Democrats willfully blocked corrective steps to address this Fannie/Freddie crisis is overwhelming. I saw a segment on Fox News this morning where they had Barney Frank on camera saying that F/F were in great shape and that the alarmism wasn't helpful.
Yet despite that, Obama's numbers on the economy have been going up.
(Allthough in 2000, Missouri indicated only the winner of the electoral vote, not the popular vote.)
NOTE TO AUTHOR: Who ever wins the Electoral College vote wins the presidencey.
I too was worried when I saw a Fox news poll with Hussein leading 45-39. What the heck?? He has ZERO experience on running anyting or making decisions about anything. He is now claiming that the people in Washington are using his ideas. He also claims that the administration is doing what he said to do about troop withdrawal. He makes me sick.
McCain will win Missouri. This election has some interesting features. A lot more states are shifting around. NC and Virginia both need more work in order to guarantee a win for McCain. The good news is that Florida and Ohio both seem to be moving towards McCain and the latest polls in Michigan show McCain is tied. I think the Democrat blunders in that state are finally coming home to roost. It will be about a ground game if McCain is going to win Michigan. I think Jack Hoogendyk will end up doing better than expected against Levin but he like so many of our conservative candidates have very little money against their incumbent opponents.
Good point.... I am sure a Left-winger who doesn’t understand why they lost in 2000 and constantly chant “selected not elected” must have written that into wikipedia
I have always used my office as a great cross section of views. Most of the employees in SOC were recruited from around the country to come to Saint Louis. We were evenly split before, but most of the office will vote for John. Using proportional projection, I can see where John is up 4.7% here. ( Very crude, and unscientific, I know, but it seems to work with the numbers..)
“McCain will win Missouri. This election has some interesting features. A lot more states are shifting around. NC and Virginia both need more work in order to guarantee a win for McCain. The good news is that Florida and Ohio both seem to be moving towards McCain and the latest polls in Michigan show McCain is tied.”
Don’t leave out MN, Mac is statistically tied there with the messiah (47 - 45 as per Quinnipiac’s latest poll), and PA where Mac is down 1 or 2 depending on which poll you look at. Mac is also down only 5 points in ME. In addition here is a link to the latest Franklin and Marshall College/Hearst Newspapers National Poll out this morning, it shows Mac + 2:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/6217686/Fm-National-Poll-Sept-2008
I agree. I believe McCain will be in the low to mid 300s EVs. I’m more comfortable now because of Princess Sarah!
Right on the button! You took the words out of my mouth. LOL
Yep, that pesky EC. If the liberals dont like it, they can amend the Constitution..
Do not worry. The American public can only hold info for a short period of time. Watch in October for the 527’s and McCain to put some real facts out there. More than likely he will do it during the debates when Nobama does not have a teleprompter to save his arse. Save the good stuff for right before the election so people will remember it and MSM cannot spin it.
I think what it was is that Roosevelt took over after McKinley’s death and too many Republicans thought he was too liberal for the party... and then meanwhile he was running against William Jennings Bryan as the Democrat and the Socialist Eugene Debs (was this the election where he was in jail?)
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